Our Warm/Dry Spell Could End Wednesday!

19UTC surface analysis showed a 1026mb High Pressure centered over the Northern Gulf of Mexico. This has been the controller of our weather for nearly a week now and will continue to influence us until Wednesday. Southerly winds have helped warm us up into the lower 80s for the past several days and this trend should continue through tomorrow- that's when things begin to change!

A strong ridge evident at 500mb has kept us very warm and quite dry over the past week, but model analysis shows this ridge dissolving by sometime on Wednesday. As that area of High Pressure scoots off farther to our east, this will make us more vulnerable to seeing rain.

The next chance for rain arrives Wednesday midday, but right now, it looks as though chances are quite slim. Despite all the rain we saw earlier in the month, we are still behind from where we should be, and with all the pollen dust collecting everywhere, a nice dose of rain would be a great relief! Hopefully, we'll be able to squeeze out a few showers Wednesday.

After Wednesday, the next chance for rain looks to be Saturday, but that threat will mainly exist across north Mississippi.

While a lot of my friends spent their Spring Break at the beach, I decided to stay home and work and intern and attempt to get a little schoolwork done- I'll let you guess which one of those did not happen...
Although I was only able to intern one day, I got to do something I have always dreamed of doing- severe weather coverage! Ethan Huston put together a sequence for me from archived radar images of the April 2010 Yazoo City EF4 tornado and I was able to record myself as if I were doing live coverage. It was such a neat experience because it is something I have always wanted to do, but afterwards, I started thinking about how in situations like those, so many peoples' lives fall into your hands and how so many people rely on TV meteorologists for life-saving information. I thought about putting the whole clip on here for you all to view, but it was a little rough (understandably) although there were some really good moments in it. So, I will just include a few snapshots!

River Flooding and A Wet Weekend Ahead!

February shaped up to be a rather dry month from what we would typically expect here in Mississippi. 1.90'' of rain was recorded whereas on average, we receive 4.50''. But it looks as if our abnormal dry spell will come to an abrupt end as we head into the first weekend of March!

Later in this post, I will address the risk of river flooding that exists, but first, let's see what we have to work with for this weekend! By 6AM Saturday, a 500mb trough will be centered in N-central Texas but PVA will be marginal at best. 850mb temps show a decent warm sector developing ahead of the system but WAA just was not too impressive, especially as we progress through the day on Saturday. We will have a lot of moisture to work with as even though WAA is rather weak, we've had southerly winds ushering in lots of moisture for two days now and this will continue until Saturday evening. There has been mention by some of the possibility of stronger T'storms, especially south of I-20 but I really think this will mainly be a non-severe t'storm and heavy rain event. If you look at this sounding from the NAM which is valid for 6AM Saturday, notice that instability is quite low which leads me to not forecast major severe thunderstorms:

With that being said, I do expect us to get quite a bit of rainfall out of this system. Here is total QPF which is totaling up all expected rain until 6AM Sunday:

Notice most places, especially east of I-55 will see at least an inch of rainfall-this would be very beneficial as we are already behind for yearly rainfall, which again, is something we usually don't have to worry about this time of year as Jan-March are typically our wettest months.

I would like to point out there is a bit of discrepancy between the NAM and GFS as to just how fast this system will clear out of here. Look at the following images which are forecast output for the listed times:

 On the top, is valid for 18Z (12pm CST) from the GFS. This was the time period in which the GFS is predicting us to get most of our rainfall and then tapering off by late Saturday evening. However, on the bottom, this is from the NAM and is valid for 0Z Sunday (6PM CST SATURDAY). Notice still quite a bit of rainfall occuring especially in east and south Mississippi. I am tending toward the NAM at this point because as the trough axis traverses MS Saturday, PVA will increase so there could be an extended period of enhanced uplift the farther east we look.

While we have remained relatively dry here in the south this winter, the same cannot be said for the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains which have been continuously impacted by major winter storms. As a result, Flood Advisories have been posted for ALL counties which border the MS River to our west.

As we continue to progress through this active weather pattern and more and more systems dump rain on our area and upstream, please be aware that the river will continue to rise over the next several weeks. Low lying agricultural areas will be the first to flood. At this time, there was no mention of any immediate flooding threats, but it is definitely something to keep an eye on!

So for your Friday, March 4, expect another warm, breezy day with highs topping out in the lower 70s. Expect clouds to increase ahead of that next system, and a spotty shower or two cannot be ruled out as we go through the day tomorrow. 

Saturday (and possibly the first part of Sunday) really look to be a washout. Unfortunately, this is occurring on a weekend after we have enjoyed several dry, warm weekends but we really could use this rain!

Colder air will filter in behind this system and most places will likely dip below the freezing mark Sunday night/Monday morning.

**Again, I am not too concerned with the threat of strong to severe storms Saturday, but as you know, things can always change so follow me on twitter @JakeReed2 for the very latest updates!

Have a great rest of the week!