Severe Weather Outbreak for Tuesday Afternoon/Evening

After a splendid spring-like weekend across MS, much of the state is bracing for the most impressive severe weather outbreak since New Year's Eve- that event spawned 14 tornadoes in MS. The system that will push in here tomorrow will also pack quite a punch, especially after lunch time and into the early night hours.

We must check several parameters to see just what we can expect tomorrow:

First, let's gauge upper level support:

This is an image from the GFS forecasting the Jet Stream for 6pm Tuesday. Notice the area in the purple and even the lighter purple embedded- this indicates winds aloft of 180kts! These strong winds will provide support to storms that form tomorrow. 

But in order to tap into this upper level energy, there has to be instability to get the storms to fire:

This is another image from the GFS forecasting dew points and streamlines for 12pm Tuesday. Typically, if dew points are below 60 degrees, major severe weather outbreaks are hard to get started. Having enough moisture in the air to support thunderstorms is extremely crucial. Notice that from near I-20 and to the south, that shade of green indicates the 60 degree dew point line. So right now, the best instability looks to be in this region. 

It is important to note that the amount of sheer (wind speed and direction changing with height) is phenomenal. So that does introduce the risk for tornadoes- but only if the storms can really "grow" will that become an issue so as long as instability is questionable, I really think the main threat will be straight line winds.

However, I want to include a passage directly from the most recent forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS that really hones in on the tornado threat and also talks about some other factors of this system: 

Yes, you read it right- there looks to be a possibility of some snow flurries on the back end of this system in N MS- that shows you just how powerful this system is forecast to be!

The good news is that once this system pushes out of our region (by about 9-10pm Tuesday) we can expect much more quiet conditions to prevail the next few days- but the cold air will sticking around- I'm talking highs only in the 30s for Wednesday!

Stay alert to local weather outlets tomorrow afternoon! I will offer frequent updates on my twitter page @JakeReed2 and also some on Facebook "Jake Reed" so make preparations now for tomorrows storms. Review safety measures and prepare accordingly!

Jake R

Snow Chances Increasing for Tuesday Night/Wednesday

As mentioned before, weather forecast models can change quite abruptly and drastically even in a short amount of time. Here's what is different from what  I was originally thinking: A day or so ago, it was looking like temps in the lower part of the atmosphere would be too warm to sustain snow development and all the models were predicting just a cold rain as far north as the TN border.

However, the models were having a tough time deciphering what to make of the upper level disturbance that will sweep through Tues. night and into Wednesday morning. But it now seems like the models are finally getting their acts together on this system. Although we are not expecting a major snow event here in MS, as the upper level low digs south from Texarkana into the SE, it will help cool the atmosphere off at the low levels and this will mean the difference between snow flakes or rain. I've seen some predictions as high as 3 or 4" in extreme N MS- I'm talking the counties that border TN- and as much as 1" for places like Starkville along HWY 82. Even considering the upper level low, places along and south of I-20 will only see rain.

Again, this is a very dynamic situation and lots of components must come together at exactly the right time for the snow to occur.

So here's a play-by-play of what you can expect:
TONIGHT- increasing clouds and rain from the SW surging north and staying with us throughout the overnight hours

TUESDAY- expect mostly a cold rain during the first 2/3 of the day

TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. MORNING- expect a change-over from rain to snow (if all ingredients come together) and some light accumulations in the GTR.

Stay tuned to my twitter account @JakeReed2 and I'll have more frequent updates on watches/warnings should they be posted for our area, as well as other developments with this storm.

Jake R

Tuesday: Rain or Snow?

Several people have been asking me why it seems like there has been a lot more talk of snow this winter across the deep south. The answer is that it is no coincidence- we can thank La Niña! The best way I can describe this without pulling out a textbook is that is a type of weather pattern which usually means very unsettled conditions for the US. The jet stream, a divider between warm and cold air and practically a highway for mid-lattitude cyclones, can be very erratic with wild oscillations north and south. What this means for us in the deep south, is that if the jet stream makes a huge nose-dive south, we get a surge of artic air- and if this happens to be in line with a low pressure center, we have the chance of seeing snow, sleet, freezing rain, or all of the above! 

However, the weather is rarely this simplistic. Sometimes, all the ingredients do not align at the right times and what we all thought was going to be a big snow event, turns out to be a cold rain. Seems like it never happens the other way around, unfortunately!

Before I begin discussing the big situation on Tuesday, let me touch on Monday. As we continue to progress through the night tonight, a small disturbance will be approaching us from the west. I'm not expecting any wintry weather with this system, but we do have a chance for some showers early in the day on Monday. The GFS is being a little more ambitious with rainfall amounts- here's what that model is predicting for things to look like 6AM Monday morning: 

Now on to Tuesday! The models are beginning to shy away from a snow event (at least for us here in MS) as temperatures near the surface will be too warm to support or sustain snow development and/or accumulation- so it looks as if it will be just a cold rain. I've put together a timeline from the NAM forecast model which shows the likelihood of the rain throughout the day on Tuesday: 

6AM TUESDAY

12PM TUESDAY

6PM TUESDAY

In summary, a slight chance for a shower or two early in the day on Monday, otherwise very cloudy. Tuesday looks to be a washout and will most likely be a RAIN event for us in MS, which is good news because we are behind on average rainfall for the month. If conditions should change, stay tuned to my twitter updates. You can follow me @JakeReed2

Hope your week gets off to a great start!

Jake R

Another Winter Storm?

If you're thinking to yourself that it is impossible to see snow twice in one year in MS- let alone within two weeks- think again! Yes, extreme northern parts of the state do have a chance tomorrow night of seeing snowfall. Accordingly, the NWS office in Memphis, TN has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY which will go into effect at 12pm Thursday and last until 9pm Thursday evening. 7 MS counties are included in this advisory: Tunica, DeSoto, Tippah, Benton, Marshall, Alcorn, and Tate. I'm expecting, at best, 3" of snow in the heaviest of bands.  Here's a better look:

If you like snow, for us here in Starkville, I hate to break it to you- but it just doesn't look like we are going to see anything measurable out of this system. I think the best chance of seeing measurable snow in MS is going to be along and north of HWY 6- this would include the cities of Clarksdale, Oxford, Batesville, Water Valley, New Albany, and Tupelo. But even so, these areas will likely not see anything above a couple of inches of snow.

Here's why I think Starkville is going to miss out:

This is an image from the NAM forecast model showing PREDICTED precipitation late Thursday night into the early parts of Friday. The important thing is what we meteorologists refer to as the "540 line." This is sort of a rule-of-thumb "rain/snow" line- with rain usually occurring to the south and snow to the north- with the area right along the line running the possibility of seeing either rain or snow, or both, or freezing rain/sleet. So as you can see in the image above, the 540 line runs almost parallel to MS HWY 6. Again, this is a forecast model and it is a prediction- things can change as we get data from the latest models.

**I will post frequent updates about this possible winter weather on my twitter page! Follow me @JakeReeed2

Below, are two images also from the NAM and this shows forecasted precipitation type- just who will see rain and who will see snow? This image is forecasting for 6PM Thursday. The top image with the green is showing where RAIN is likely to be occurring at 6PM Thursday. You can see that most of MS, minus the EXTREME NORTHERN counties should see MAINLY RAIN- however, I can't rule out a flurry or two or even possibly a light dusting in some areas- this would be along and north of MS HWY 82.

The image BELOW is showing where the NAM thinks snow will be occurring at 6PM Thursday.

 I can say with confidence that this will not be as big of a winter storm as what we saw early last week. However it is worth mentioning because snowfall is fairly uncommon in the deep south. Again, this event is forecast to take place THURSDAY EVENING and into the early hours on Friday.

Once this system moves out, we will be left with some pretty cold air for Friday-Sunday. Luckily, the sun will finally come back out for Friday and the weekend! Highs will stay in the mid to low 40s and lows falling into the mid to low 20s. Our next chance of RAIN will not occur until early next week.

Stay tuned to my twitter page @JakeReed2 for more frequent updates on the possible snow!

Hope you guys have a great one!

Arctic Blast in Mississippi!

Wow! What a bone-chilling cold day we've had so far across N Mississippi. In fact, many areas north of HWY 82 still have snow on the ground- several inches in some spots! This is what we meteorologists refer to as a 'snow pack' and it has played a huge role in today's weather.

This is a satellite image and no, those aren't clouds. That's the snow that's still on the ground! Snow has a very high reflectivity because of that, it reflects back to the satellite and shows up.

     Here's what's going on: Since the winter storm has pushed off the east coast, MS is now being controlled by a very large and strong Arctic High Pressure. The 1043mb surface High Pressure is situated over the Red River between Texas and Oklahoma. This is causing N-NW winds across MS. Under normal circumstances, we might say "colder air is being filtered in" but in today's case, those winds are traveling across a snow pack. What this means, is that the air that is being funneled in from Canada is just as cold there as it is when it reaches the Magnolia State! 

While temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 20s, the wind chill factor remains in the teens. We also have single digit dew points and that is really causing the extra 'bite' in the cold air, so please be cautious if you're going to be outdoors today as this is dangerously cold air and is something you want to take seriously! Just a few numbers here: Todd Yakoubian, a meteorologist with KATV in Little Rock, Arkansas, reported a wind chill in that area of -11 F degrees this morning!

We still have a couple of warnings that are in effect due to the brutally cold temperatures. The NWS in Jackson, MS keeps a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the entire HWY 82 corridor from the MS-AL state line in Lowdnes and Noxubee Counties westward along HWY 82 until the MS River and this continues until tomorrow at 10AM- here's a glimpse of that (courtesy the NWS): 

The cold air will remain locked in our area at least for the next day or two, but then by late in the weekend, that High Pressure System will progress eastward and we will see a return flow- this means southerly winds and more moisture. It will also allow temps to moderate quite a bit- to near 60 by Martin Luther King Jr. day, and we also then introduce a chance for showers- more on that to come!

Hope you guys have a fantastic Wednesday and thanks for reading!

Jake R

Snowy Situation

If you live almost anywhere in Northern Mississippi, you woke up to snow blanketing the ground. This was thanks to one of the biggest Winter storms we've seen in MS since the Winter of 1989!

Some of you may be asking yourselves, "Why didn't we get as much snow as was being forecasted?" The answer is a bit complicated. In places like Starkville, forecasters were originally thinking upwards of 4-8'' of snow- here at MSU, we only got 3''. This is because a relatively warm layer of air just above the surface caused most of the snow that was falling (towards the end of the night) to melt into sleet pellets- and sleet does not accumulate as well as snow. However, I'm not complaining! Here are a few images of the snow from 21 Apartments: 

Down in central MS, along the I-20 corridor, you guys saw a pretty impressive accumulation of ice! In fact, the flyover at the I-220/I-55 junction was closed because it was solid ice. Outer lying area roads which are not as well-maintained were hit even harder. In Scott and Leake County, numerous accidents were reported. Other accidents, some with injuries were reported in Vicksburg, which also had many power outages, as well as in Meridian- and it only got worse eastward into Alabama.

I know many of you in central MS were disappointed that you didn't see any accumulations of snow, but  this was a very complex and complicated storm system which was challenging to forecast for even the most experienced meteorologists. 

The deformation band, which I talked about in my last post, formed a little more northward than what I was thinking, but nonetheless, it dumped double-digit snow totals in places like Tippah County, which reportedly received 10 inches! Other areas like Oxford saw 5'', Starkville, 3'', and Cleveland, 4-5''.

**Travel Notice** While the brunt of the storm has pushed well to our East, there is still plenty of snow on the ground. Temps today in N MS did not get out of the 30s, so melting was a struggle. Tonight, temps will plummet down into the 20s, so any runoff will refreeze on roads and bridges, so travel, especially early in the morning and on secondary/access roads will remain difficult and dangerous- so please be mindful of that.

**The week ahead: Unlike in previous weeks, temps will not quickly rebound this week. Highs will remain frigidly cold- in the 30s- Wed., we may not get above freezing- and lows will bottom out in the mid to upper teens! Ouch!

**Winter Storm Update**

Mississippi is on tap for possibly the biggest Winter Storm we've seen in almost 15 years!

The NWS in Jackson has issued a Winter Storm Warning for 72 out of 88 MS counties. If you live along Hwy 84 northward to the Tennessee state line, you are included. This warning will go into effect Sunday at 3pm and remain in effect until Monday at 6pm:

The pink counties are under the Winter Storm Warning and the counties shaded in blue are under a Winter Storm Watch. This image is courtesy of NWS JAN!

The set-up of this storm is quite tricky and makes forecasting it even trickier. But the models have generally agreed that wintry precipitation and accumulations are likely along and north of Interstate 20. Now the question is: what type will fall where and how much?

*Areas along the Hwy 84 corridor*: temperatures should remain warm enough, upper 30s, that you guys will mostly just see cold rain. However, there could be a snowflake or two and maybe some sleet pellets as well, but hazardous accumulations are not likely.

*Areas along the I-20 corridor*: Locations like Jackson, Meridian, Vicksburg, Madison, Ridgeland, Canton, Brandon, Clinton, and other parts of Warren, Hinds, Rankin, Madison, Scott, Leake, Simpson, Smith, and Copiah counties will likely see everything mother nature offers in winter: snow, freezing rain and sleet. I expect the biggest threat in this area to be accumulations of ice, but a few inches of snow is not out of the question as well.

*Areas along the Hwy 82 corridor*: This area, including us here in Starkville, will mainly see snow. In general we should see at least 3 inches. HOWEVER, we expect a "deformation" band to develop (an intense band of heavy snow) in this area, in which accumulations of 5-8 inches are possible. At this point, it is not easy to say where exactly this band will form, and we will have to wait a little longer before we can pinpoint that exact location.

**HAZARDOUS TRAVEL** - I highly discourage travel during this time as road conditions will deteriorate as soon as the wintry precipitation begins to accumulate. Ice is especially dangerous and because winds will remain a constant throughout the event, trees and power lines are at risk of falling. Power outages will be likely in areas that see the most ice and snow. Into the evening hours on Sunday, travel is especially hazardous as ice will be harder to detect at night. 

If you must travel during this event, remember: if you hit a patch of ice, do not slam on the breaks- gently tap them. If you begin to spin out, turn your wheel in the direction of the spin. Be smart about this and do not drive at high rates of speed on ANY road during this event. No matter how big your truck/SUV might be, it will be no match for an icy road! And again, if you must travel, remember to pack blankets and water and a flashlight in the car with you in case you get stranded out on the road.

Thursday Night and Friday, January 6-7, 2011

First Blog Post! (still figuring it all out)

For those of us here in the Golden Triangle: Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with lows in the lower 30s. Tomorrow looks fantastic! Sunny skies and mild with highs in the mid 50s.