Easter Sunday Severe Weather

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for parts of central, south and west Mississippi thru 8PM tonight. A list of counties can be found here:

The potent line of storms continues to hold together as it marches to the east at 40mph:

HAZARDS: -Damaging wind gusts 50-70mph

                     -Hail up to quarter size (1" diameter)

A period of heavy rain will follow the initial blast of strong winds. This system should exit the area by sunset.

For more frequent updates, find me on Twitter. 

Possible Late March Cold Snap

    It's hard not to enjoy your spring break vacation or stay-cation with weather as nice as we've had this week. Much of the country has been basking in warmer-than-normal temperatures for the latter half of the week and the overall pattern has been quite docile. We can thank the zonal upper level pattern for that:

     When the jet stream lifts far to the north, closer to the Canadian border, this keeps the colder air well away from us...but who's complaining right? Friday afternoon, a bubble of warm air 70º+ extended well into the central Plains...many spots eclipsing the 80º mark:

     Expect this pattern to stick around for at least the next 3 days before some changes...maybe drastic...begin to move in. 

     Using something called teleconnections, we can make general forecasts pertaining to overall patterns in the upcoming weeks and since spring officially arrives next week...everyone wants to know when they can start planting their gardens and when can they expect the warm weather to stick around. Take a look below at the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation graphs...keeping in mind that when these indices go negative, that typically spells cold air outbreaks over the eastern 2/3 of the country:

Arctic Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation

Note that the consensus is pretty good on both indices becoming negative through the last week of March. The GFS 2-meter temperature anomaly supports this theory...the map below is valid next Saturday, the 23rd...keeping in mind this is how much below or above normal the temperature will be:

All this to say...don't be shocked to see a cold stretch of weather as we round out the month of March. Here in Jackson, our average last freeze usually happens during the middle of April, but has occurred as late as the end of April.

Not only will our stretch of very warm weather be interrupted, things look to turn stormier early next week as a cold front approaches us. It's still too early to try and iron out specifics, but the SPC has placed parts of the south under an enhanced risk area to see severe weather...as of now the timing appears to be late Monday into early Tuesday, however the greatest risk of strong storms may barely clip us to the north and east; stay tuned: