Tornadoes Pummel South Mississippi

An EF-1 and EF-2 Tornado have been confirmed to hit parts of south MS this morning. Here are the details from NWS JAN:

951 
NOUS44 KJAN 162243 CCA
PNSJAN

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CST WED NOV 16 2011

...PRELIMINARY STORM SURVEY INFORMATION...

JONES COUNTY TORNADO: 
BEGINNING POINT: 4 SE HEBRON AT 503 AM
ENDING POINT: 4.5 ESE HEBRON AT 507 AM 
RATING: EF-1, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 95 MPH 
PATH LENGTH: 2 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH: 50 YARDS 

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE: THIS TORNADO DEVELOPED AND DOWNED SEVERAL TREES
ALONG FRED ELLZEY ROAD, AND CAUSED MODERATE DAMAGE TO THE ROOF OF A
LARGE HOME NORTH OF THE ROAD. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, SNAPPING
SEVERAL TREES AND HEAVILY DAMAGING AN OUTBUILDING AS IT CROSSED WEST
CREEK ROAD. THE TORNADO THEN SNAPPED A FEW TREES AND DAMAGED THE ROOF
OF AN OUTBUILDING JUST BEFORE CROSSING HIGHWAY 84, SHORTLY AFTER WHICH
IT DISSIPATED.


JONES/JASPER COUNTY TORNADO 
BEGINNING POINT: 7 W LAUREL AT 512 AM 
ENDING POINT: 2.5 N SHARON AT 530 AM 
RATING: EF-2, MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WINDS 130 MPH 
INJURIES: 15 
PATH LENGTH: 12 MILES MAXIMUM WIDTH: 300 YARDS 

SUMMARY OF DAMAGE:
THE TORNADO DEVELOPED ALONG PAT HOLLIMAN AND LEROY HILL ROADS,
DOWNING A FEW TREES. THE TORNADO MOVED NORTHEAST, WIDENED AND REACHED
ITS MAXIMUM WIDTH IN THE AREA OF SPRINGHILL ROAD, WHERE HIGH END EF-1
DAMAGE TO TREES OCCURRED. THE TORNADO THEN NARROWED TO ABOUT 150 TO 250
YARD WIDE PATH OF MID TO HIGH END EF-2 DAMAGE ON EITHER SIDE OF STATE 
HIGHWAY 15 IN THE SHADY GROVE COMMUNITY NORTHWEST OF LAUREL. SEVERAL 
MOBILE HOMES WERE COMPLETELY DESTROYED, NUMEROUS POWER POLES WERE
SNAPPED, SEVERAL FRAME AND BRICK HOMES SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE AND
OTHER MODERATE DAMAGE, AND EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED. A FEW
COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 15 SUFFERED MAJOR DAMAGE. AS
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST JONES COUNTY, IT
CAUSED EF-1 TYPE DAMAGE AS IT CROSSED SHARON-MOSS AND LAKE COMO
ROADS, SNAPPING AND UPROOTING TREES AND CAUSING SOME ROOF AND MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO SEVERAL HOMES. THE TORNADO THEN INTENSIFIED
SOMEWHAT AGAIN AS IT CROSSED INTO JASPER COUNTY, DESTROYING THREE
LARGE CHICKEN HOUSES AND CAUSING EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ALONG COUNTY
ROAD 812 JUST INSIDE THE JASPER COUNTY LINE. THE TORNADO DISSIPATED
SHORTLY AFTER CAUSING THIS DAMAGE. SO FAR, 15 PEOPLE WERE INJURED BY
THIS TORNADO, WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE INJURIES BEING RELATIVELY MINOR.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WOULD LIKE TO THANK JONES COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, JASPER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, AND
MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR THEIR OUTSTANDING
ASSISTANCE IN CONDUCTING THESE STORM SURVEYS.

$$

AG/BK/EA

Weekend Forecast Update

What a great night for some high school football! The sky is clear and look at these current temps:

     

 No Freeze Warning in effect for us tonight, but I expect most of us to end up in the lower 30s by sunrise tomorrow.

If you're planning on traveling up to Starkville tonight for Bulldog Bash, I see no problems weather wise. Traffic moving smoothly along County Line Road at I-55 near the Hilton Hotel in Ridgeland, MS. Here's a current snapshot from an MDOT skycam:
                                           

As for TOMORROW, I do expect things to remain on the dry side, but I am watching some high clouds begin to stream in from the west this evening:

These are mainly high, cirrus clouds and they won't totally block the sun tomorrow, but if you're going to be out hunting early in the morning, this is the perfect set up for some some spectacular sunrises as the sun will refract off the clouds and really show a great color display. I am expecting the high clouds to stick around most of the day Saturday, and here's why:

This is a forecast sounding from the NAM valid for tomorrow at noon. Notice towards the top, the red and green lines are very close to one another- this implies that we'll see an increase in moisture in the upper atmosphere and that could result in some high cirrus clouds throughout the day tomorrow. Notice though towards the bottom, the two lines are pretty far apart- this is dry air so, like today, we'll see a big swing in temperatures from morning through afternoon because dry air heats up and cools down very efficiently. Again, Saturday will stay dry and mostly on the sunny side!

Notice the temperatures still pretty warm for this time of night just out to our west. I'm watching a storm system developing out to our west that will begin to impact our weather late Sunday and probably be out of here sometime on Wednesday.

                                           

This looks to be a pretty decent event in terms of the amount of rain some locations could pick up. Let's look at some model data from the GFS. I will point out that it has sped this system up to be an overnight Monday/ early Tuesday rainmaker, so we'll have to watch and see if it slows back down or keeps on this track. 

The top image is valid for 12am Tuesday while the bottom shows what this model THINKS will be occurring by 6am Tuesday...

Some of these storms, especially to our west and north look like they may try to get a little on the strong side so that is something else we'll have to watch out for, but we really need this rain!!

High pressure will re-claim its territory over the Magnolia state by Wednesday night and it looks as if we are going to have a fantastic end to next week, so that is something we can look forward to.

Isaiah 40:31

Jake Reed

Damage Footage from Clinton, MS on April 15, 2011

A Spooky Forecast for Halloween?

See awesome images from Monday evening's Aurora Borealis, get the latest details on Hurricane Rina, and find out if we'll see rain tomorrow, AND a big cool down in store for the weekend!

Is More Flooding on the way for the East Coast?

Both the Canadian (top) and GFS (bottom) are suggesting a tropical system could develop off the east coast of Florida by early next week, and then track up the I-95 corridor along the eastern seaboard. We'll have to follow this closely as models can and do change with each latest run.

And over the next 5 days, there is an expansive area of heavy rain possible for this same area:

September 22, 2011

Tomorrow at 4:05 am marks the official end to Summer, but if you've stepped outside today, it certainly doesn't feel like almost Fall. After a foggy morning in places, the sun came out in full force and we're sitting in the middle 80s in most places in north Mississippi and it's pretty muggy too. Here's how it looks in Columbus right now:

-Alfa Insurance Sky Cam

Tonight/Tomorrow: I am watching a cool front off to our west and it is slowly making its way east. Right now, showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, are firing along the front in central Arkansas and western Louisiana:

The latest model data brings the cool front through north Mississippi early Friday morning through midday. Most of the energy associated with this system is situated across the Great Lakes in the form of an upper level low. Additionally, the models suggest that moisture supply will diminish as the front moves east, so I do not expect at this time that we will see a major rain event area-wide. Here is *modeled* radar reflectivity for 15Z Friday Morning:

Not only is most of the energy confined to our north, the coldest temperatures are as well. We will see high temperatures knocked down a few degrees, but this isn't going to be a big arctic blast. What you will notice is much more refreshing air filtering in especially during the day on Saturday as models are bringing in some considerably drier air and lots of sunshine. 

After Friday, our next best shot at rain looks to be Tuesday evening as that upper level low parked over the Great Lakes tries to send another front through our area.

Tropics: The latest on Tropical Storm Ophelia: Model guidance curves Ophelia away from the Caribbean and keeps this cyclone a tropical storm. We'll have to watch and see if this re-curving trend continues:

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Record Lows and Active Tropics! September 7, 2011

Find out who saw record lows this morning and what activity might be right on Lee's heels in the Gulf:

August 31, 2011 Update

Early Taste of Fall: August 16, 2011

If you've stepped outside first thing in the morning the past two days, it has felt more like October than mid-August! Low temperatures have nestled into the middle and lower 60s across the Magnolia state and with lower humidity values, it has felt especially crisp in the morning and not as oppressive in the afternoons, even though we continue to top out in the mid 90s.

A "cold" front passage over the weekend brought us a few showers on Saturday afternoon, but more noticeably was the dry, continental air!

However, the pattern is beginning to transition back into one that is more characteristic of summertime in the Deep South. The relentless heat has returned to the southern Great Plains. Dallas, TX had an incredible 40 day streak of 100+ degree days, consecutively. With another expansive High Pressure center building over this area, the overall upper air pattern is becoming more amplified rather than zonal. For us in Mississippi, we are seeing a predominantly northwesterly flow aloft as we are on the eastern side of that heat ridge:

This type of weather pattern lends itself to upper level disturbances (MCS's) which ride the periphery of that heat ridge. At the time of writing, one of these disturbances is creating some showers and thunderstorms over central and southern Missouri, developing into northeast Arkansas. Over the past 2 days, these disturbances haven't made it this far south, but the "convective debris," (the high cirrus clouds) have filtered in, especially overnight and that has kept our temps from reaching the low 60s.

By the time Thursday arrives, there is poised to be broad troughing over the eastern half of the country. A big area of low pressure is expected to be centered over western Ontario, Canada and have an associated front which could drape all the way down the MS River Valley. This could bring us a better chance of  some showers and storms, but due to the standard summertime pattern we've just jumped back into, there is a chance every afternoon of a pop up storm or two, especially Wednesday through the weekend.

Tropical Storm Gert has weakened as the storm continues to venture over the open waters of the Atlantic, with max sustained winds as of 11am at 40mph. Gert will degenerate over the next day or so and will not pose a threat to the US.

There is another area of interest near the Lesser Antilles, on which the National Hurricane Center has placed a 20% chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours. This tropical wave will need to be watched closely as it migrates west into the warm Caribbean waters.

July 4th Sizzler!

Hope everyone is having a great Independence Day so far! Here's how things are shaping up for this afternoon:

15Z surface analysis showed a large, nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the mid-Mississippi River Valley, east into the Ohio River Valley. Numerous clusters of thunderstorms are already ongoing in these areas.

An expansive hot airmass has been the persistent weather feature for several days now- temperatures already rising through the low 90s, but dew points are especially soupy- low to mid 70s across the Magnolia State.

This complex of storms and associated frontal boundary will begin to slowly sag south towards us, and with such a warm, moist environment, afternoon thunderstorms are likely. Another point of interest is an outflow boundary these storms are causing which has just passed through the Memphis area. This secondary boundary could potentially be a focal point for showers/storms to develop later today.

A lot of folks will be outdoors this afternoon for festivities, etc. so it is very important that we all stay alert to the changing weather. Have a plan of action to ensure you stay safe this afternoon if the weather gets rough. With these storms, expect lots of cloud-to-ground lightning, possible hail, brief damaging wind gusts, and torrential rains. What we typically see in Mississippi in the summer time is the storms not really moving much once they form. Very localized areas could easily pick up two, even three inches of rain in just a matter of hours. So if and when a warning is issued for your location, please take it seriously! It would be a good idea to have a weather radio with you if you will be outdoors this afternoon, away from TV or radio.

Even with the rain chances, the hot airmass just is not going anywhere anytime soon- high temperatures will continue to flirt with the century mark, with real-feels well into the triple digits. Expect afternoon and evening downpours to develop at least into the first part of this week. No 'major' changes in the overall weather pattern are forecast to occur at this time.

Remembering and Rebuilding Smithville, Mississippi

It is a town that many of us had never even heard of before April 27, 2011. It is an afternoon that we will all not soon forget. April 27 marked the spawning of some of the strongest tornadoes to hit our state in more than four decades- a fact the town of Smithville knows firsthand...


Traveling north up Highway 25 this afternoon, as soon as I exited Amory, I realized to some degree what I was about to get in to. The first indication of something out of the ordinary was a row of about a dozen or so brand new telephone/power poles along the highway- my heart sunk.


What came next was something you hope to never see. Even two months later, there still seems to be somewhat of sense of despair, even among all of the clean up. Personally, there's just something about seeing the spray painted symbols and codes on buildings that I cannot digest. I always wonder what the person who left them had to face; what all did they see?


I think it is an event that many people will always remember "where they were" right when it happened.

In one semester, I along with my closest friends, have witnessed some incredible, inspiring, yet devastating moments. This is a screen-shot from my iPhone of this supercell, just before it tore through Smithville. I still get chills when I look at this.


Separate from some classic meteorological signature features that can be taught with this photo- I cannot help but to think about a more personal side. What was probably an ordinary Wednesday afternoon in a small north Mississippi town was about to change forever.


3:38PM- I think about the students who must have just been getting out of class, maybe walking home from school. I think about those who were preparing for Wednesday evening services at the local churches. I think about the moms and dads at work, worrying about how they would get dinner on the table that night. I think about those that never made it home that day...

Some of the initial phrases that I heard which attempted to describe the devastation: "totally destroyed," "catastrophic," "Smithville is gone" may have not even been enough. Perhaps it was only the survivors who saw their town through the rubble seconds after the tornado hit, but even two months later, one's imagination still has trouble grasping what appears to have happened...

Continuing along Highway 25, I saw cement driveways which lead to barren plots of land decorated with mangled steel. I saw brick steps which lead to bare foundations and clear blue sky. If that was not humbling enough, at every lot, someone had put up an American flag- a symbol of strength and an assurance that things will get better. 

One of the scary things about April 27, is that this particular storm really could have happened just about anywhere in north Mississippi with how ripe the atmosphere was for strong storms that day. Smithville is situated about 25-35 miles away from Tupelo, not to mention various other relatively small towns in Monroe County. My point being, just because many of us did not see damage like what was experienced in Smithville, do not be quick to try and remove yourself from the reality that it could have just as easily happened somehwere else- and likely will at some point in the future. Residents of nearby Tupelo only have to venture back to 1936 to remember what was one of the deadliest US tornadoes which killed entire families and decimated the northern part of the city.

For reasons that I do not understand, meteorologists have long been the target of extreme scrutiny by the public. I would like to think that is in part due to a lack of understanding the science behind what we do, but I feel like after a day like April 27th, I find it hard to believe that people still mock the work of TV meteorologists in particular. Being such a small town, many of us have no ties or connections to Smithville, but I think it is impossible for anyone to not be affected by the images and stories that continue to pour out of that area.

As there is usually a lesson in every story, what I take from this is that always, always, always, we must take weather watches and warnings seriously! Even though it is inevitable to ward off that sense of complacency after numerous "false alarms" I just think back to what I have seen with my own eyes what these storms can do. I will include a few images I took just one day after the Tuscaloosa tornado occurred. I must add, Tuscaloosa's tornado was classified as having been an EF-4; Smithville's tornado was rated an EF-5 with winds over 200 miles per hour. So these images, and worse:

As we approach Independence Day, many of us will enjoy this holiday with our families. Please keep in mind those that lost loved ones on April 27th, as well as those men and women who have and continue to serve our country at home and overseas!

God Bless,

Jake

I was contacted by Kevin Flemmons, one of the first responders to the Smithville tornado. He graciously shared some sobering pictures of some of the damage taken just three days after the tornado hit:

The Battle Continues!

Another image from the 2008 MS River Floods. This is from Newman Road in Issaquena County

We've been under the influence of a ridge of high pressure which has been anchored over the Southeastern states for the past several days. This is what has kept us high and dry, and pretty warm and muggy too. A closed low out in the Great Plains is pushing a potent shortwave trough towards Mississippi. At this time, showers and thunderstorms, many of which have been severe are affecting portions of the Arklatex, but I expect this activity to fizzle out as it approaches the MS River by dawn. With that being said, there still remains a small chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm along the MS River when you wake up tomorrow- Jackson should stay dry tonight.

This same complex will produce an outflow boundary which will be important for tomorrow's forecast. All models are pointing to this boundary setting up somewhere in northern MS, along and/or north of HWY 82 tomorrow afternoon. This is where the best chance of thunderstorms exists tomorrow. Jackson has a slight chance of seeing some thunderstorm activity, but those chances really drop off as you head south of I-20. This complex should also create an area of clouds that we'll have to deal with first thing tomorrow morning, but I expect the sun to break out by late morning and into the afternoon, but it will certainly be another hot one!

For now, this will be the final battle between our two weather features- the sultry High and the potent Low. For the first part of next week, we'll see that ridge of high pressure strengthen and build back into our region, keeping us hot and steamy.

The next best chance of widespread rain arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.

1927 Flood Record Broken at Vicksburg

This is from the 2008 flooding at our deer camp in Valley Park, MS. This is our entrance road, marked with the red gate posts on either side.

Today, unfortunately, another record has been broken in terms of this historic, catastrophic flooding caused by the MS River swelling miles beyond its banks. At 3:00PM this afternoon, the National Weather Service at Jackson was reporting a river stage of 56.4'- which breaks the 1927 record at 56.2'. Keep in mind flood stage sits at 43'. The river at Vicksburg will finally crest sometime in the next week, but don't expect the water to drain out overnight- it's going to be a long recovery process.

The flooding is so bad, several road closures to major thoroughfares in the western part of the state have had to be issued. You can get a complete list of those by visiting MDOT's website here: MS ROAD CLOSURES

We have a deercamp in Valley Park, MS, which is about 25 miles north of Vicksburg just off of HWY 61. I am about to travel that direction in order to get a closer look. I will try to get some pictures while I am out.

Elsewhere in the state, expect a pretty gloomy day tomorrow as clouds will move back into the area (no rain chance) but it will be unseasonably cool, highs may not even get into the 60s in some locales and it will be pretty windy. Expect a slow moderation of temps into the 80s by the end of the week into the weekend, and the sun will return for Tuesday, and stick with us until our next rain chance arrives late in the week into the weekend. Stay tuned for more updates and follow me on twitter @weather_Jake

Potentially Catastrophic Flooding on the Horizon

With a cold front currently slicing through central Alabama, cooler temperatures are being ushered into central Mississippi. We are also dealing with some pretty heavy rainfall this morning. I expect the rain to begin to taper off around lunchtime into the early afternoon, but I doubt we will see much sun today. No severe weather with this system is expected which is great news! We can look forward to full sunshine to return for Wednesday, and remain with us through the early part of next week. High temperatures today will be about 20-25 degrees cooler than what we've grown accustomed to the past few weeks, but this cool spell will be short lived. Temperatures will begin to moderate starting tomorrow, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, but by the weekend, you can expect middle to upper 80s to return. A check on temperatures right now shows most of Mississippi sitting at or just above the 50 degree mark, and I've turned the radar on so you can see where the rain is ongoing:

Also, once the rain pushes out of the area, we'll still have a lot of cloud cover to deal with. Clearing line is currently right across central Arkansas:

As I am sure you are aware, we are in store for some historic and potentially catastrophic flooding in the Ohio and Mississippi Rive Valleys. Here in Mississippi, flood waters are already beginning to rise in areas that typically flood this time of year, but we have a long way to go before the waters begin to recede, especially with all this rainfall that is occurring over the area at this time. 

The Mississippi Department of Transportation will be CLOSING off ALL of HWY 465 starting at HWY 61 (this is just north of the Yazoo River, right after you cross the big bridge) and MDOT reported that the closure of the road could come as early as today. Places like Eagle Lake and Lake Chotard are expected to experience flooding very soon. Here is a general summary of river stages and how the current levels compare to flood stage and also to previous major events:

We have a deer camp located in Valley Park in Issaquena County and we are expecting major flooding to impact our camp. This particular area is no stranger to flooding. In fact, some degree of flooding occurs nearly every year. Our two story cabin was built in 1973 and has never had water enter the second floor- we are thinking that might change this year. As shown in the graphic above, area rivers are expected to crest around the middle to end of this month. I will be traveling up there in the coming weeks and will be documenting the flooding as I see it. Hopefully, people who live in this area year round have already made the necessary preparations to minimize property damage. This looks to be yet another event we will not soon forget.

Remember to follow me on twitter @weather_Jake for more frequent updates on local news and weather!

Jake R

Lightning: What You Need to Know

To put it lightly, this Spring has been extremely active in terms of severe weather- and I'm not just talking about tornadoes. Devastating wild fires in west Texas, extreme drought in the southern plains, and several areas with historic floods have unfolded across the US just in the last few months alone.

With much of our attention focused on these huge events, I think some of us (myself included) have become complacent to some other weather phenomena  that are extremely dangerous. Today's focus will be on one of those- lightning.

It wasn't until a few weeks ago when a few friends and I were out following a couple of storms and we stopped just off HWY 25 to watch an impressive shelf cloud roll through. Here's a picture of it and you may see why we were so fascinated with it:

Impressive, right?

We had all gotten out of the car to snap a few photos, but then I got to thinking about something that honestly, I had never really taken too seriously before- lightning. I think most meteorologists who get the opportunity to go out and chase storms would agree that lightning is probably one of the last things on their minds when they are watching a large tornado in the distance. While it's true that we seem to become mesmerized by mother nature, I really wanted to stress how deadly lightning can be. 

It has been found that at any given time on Earth, there are approximately 2000 thunderstorms occurring, and those storms produce lightning strikes at a rate of 100 times PER SECOND! After some number crunching, that comes out to be....

8,640,000 lightning strikes every day on Earth.

Sadly, 58 people in the US are killed after being struck by lightning every year.

Here are a few common misconceptions about lightning safety, along with some truths about the matter,  courtesy of the National Weather Service:

Lightning Safety Myths and Truths

---

Myth:  Lightning never strikes the same place twice.
Truth:  Lightning often strikes the same place repeatedly, especially if it’s a tall, pointy, isolated object. The Empire State Building it is hit nearly 25 times a year.
Myth:  If it’s not raining or there aren’t clouds overhead, you’re safe from lightning.
Truth: Lightning often strikes more than three miles from the center of the thunderstorm, far outside the rain or thunderstorm cloud.  “Bolts from the blue” can strike 10-15 miles from the thunderstorm.
Myth:  Rubber tires on a car protect you from lightning by insulating you from the ground.
Truth: Most cars are safe from lightning, but it is the metal roof and metal sides that protect you, NOT the rubber tires.  Remember, convertibles, motorcycles, bicycles, open-shelled outdoor recreational vehicles and cars with fiberglass shells offer no protection from lightning. When lightning strikes a vehicle, it goes through the metal frame into the ground. Don't lean on doors during a thunderstorm.
Myth:  A lightning victim is electrified.  If you touch them, you’ll be electrocuted.
Truth:  The human body does not store electricity.  It is perfectly safe to touch a lightning victim to give them first aid.  This is the most chilling of lightning myths.  Imagine if someone died because people were afraid to give CPR!
Myth:  If outside in a thunderstorm, you should seek shelter under a tree to stay dry.
Truth: Being underneath a tree is the second leading activity for lightning casualties.  Don’t do it!
Myth:  If you are in a house, you are safe from lightning.
Truth: A house is a safe place to be during a thunderstorm as long as you avoid anything that conducts electricity. This means staying off corded phones, electrical appliances, wires, TV cables, computers, plumbing, metal doors and windows. Windows are hazardous for two reasons: wind generated during a thunderstorm can blow objects into the window, breaking it and causing glass to shatter and second, in older homes, in rare instances, lightning can come in cracks in the sides of windows.
Myth:  If thunderstorms threaten while you are outside playing a game, it is okay to finish it before seeking shelter.
Truth: Many lightning casualties occur because people do not seek shelter soon enough.  No game is worth death or life-long injuries.  Seek proper shelter immediately if you hear thunder.  Adults are responsible for the safety of children.
Myth:  Structures with metal, or metal on the body (jewelry, cell phones,Mp3 players, watches, etc), attract lightning.
Truth: Height, pointy shape, and isolation are the dominant factors controlling where a lightning bolt will strike. The presence of metal makes absolutely no difference on where lightning strikes.  Mountains are made of stone but get struck by lightning many times a year.  When lightning threatens, take proper protective action immediately by seeking a safe shelter – don’t waste time removing metal.  While metal does not attract lightning, it does conduct it so stay away from metal fences, railing, bleachers, etc.
Myth:  If trapped outside and lightning is about to strike, I should lie flat on the ground.
Truth:  Lying flat increases your chance of being hit by a ground current.  If you are caught outside in a thunderstorm, you keep moving toward a safe shelter.



With summer time approaching, pop-up airmass thunderstorms are an almost everyday occurrence, especially in the Deep South. As more and more of us begin to spend more and more time outdoors, our chances of being struck by lightning become higher and higher. Please review these safety tips and next time you're outdoors and you hear that first clap of thunder or see that first bolt of lightning, don't take that risk of being struck.

EF-3 Tornado Rips Through Clinton, MS 4/15/11

      Here is footage I shot from Heatherlynn Circle in Easthaven in Clinton, MS

It started out as pretty much every Friday does for me- waking up early to be on time for my 8am Spanish 4 class. I had my last chapter test in that class at that time and I also had a Physical Meteorology test scheduled for 10am. I had gotten a call from Ethan Huston the day before asking if I would be able to come down to the station and help with severe weather coverage- as all signs were pointing to this being a pretty dangerous event. I really did not want to miss this opportunity as it we are winding down our severe weather season here in Mississippi, so I talked to two of my professors and got my 10am test bumped up to 9am and got cleared to miss my 11am class- it worked out perfectly! I was on the road headed home at 9:07am.

I had been checking radar all morning and it looked like the storms were moving a bit faster than anticipated so I was worried that I was going to miss out on the brunt of the action- boy was I wrong. I had a pretty quiet drive home, just a few rain showers and some lightning and I even passed a few senior BMP students on HWY 25 just north of Louisville. It usually takes me about 2 hours to get home so I was hoping to be at the station around 11am. As I was getting closer to Jackson, I started noticing a storm developing in eastern Louisiana just west of the MS River, but did not really think too much of it at first. As I was passing through Carthage, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for Warren and Claiborne Counties for this storm- so I sped up a little bit :)

As the storm intensified into SW Hinds County, things really began to deteriorate. I do not remember exactly where I was, but I saw that a Tornado Warning had been issued for Hinds County, and this storm was heading right for my TV station!

I arrived at the Ross Barnett Reservoir just before 11am and I had gotten word via twitter that a Tornado was on the ground in the city of Clinton and that power flashes were visible from one of WAPT's skycams- that is never a good sign. I was going to run by my house in Ridgeland and wait this storm out as I did not want to try to drive through Jackson with this serious storm. As I got to the Ridgeland side of the Reservoir, I called Heather Sophia because I was having a hard time analyzing radar while trying to drive. She informed me that the storm was headed right for Northpark Mall- about 2 miles from where I was. At this point, I'm not going to lie, I got very worried. I turned around and headed back across the Spillway into Rankin County to get out of the immediate path of the tornado, all still while trying to make it to the station.

I didn't realize it at the time, but the first picture I took with my phone of the radar, was right at 11am- the same time the tornado had touched down and was devastating Clinton:

Here, you can see exactly what we meteorologists look for in tornadic storms- bright greens matched up to bright reds. Again, at this time, we now know that the tornado was already on the ground just to the north of I-20.

Here's what the same storm looked like as it moved through Madison and Ridgeland, just a few moments later:























It wasn't until I arrived at the station that I began to realize the true magnitude of destruction that had been caused in Clinton. We were getting footage from our storm chaser, Vincent Webb, and we could see that cars had been mangled and tossed hundreds of feet, and the roof of the BankPlus on Springridge Road had been ripped off. Vincent also had shot incredible video of the tornado as it touched down just south of I-20 and tracked along Springridge Road across the interstate. Quite possibly the most shocking thing was- we saw dozens of cars driving along the interstate and Springridge inside the vortex like nothing was out of the ordinary! I will  never be able to understand or explain that... Luckily, none of those individuals were killed, and at last check, there were only 2 reports of injuries from Clinton, one of those people had life-threatening injuries. This same storm held together and later spawned an EF-3 in Kemper and Neshoba County, causing devastation to the community of Scooba, MS, near the Alabama line. Several of my friends and teachers from Mississippi State were on this cell and got some incredible photos and video. Unbelievably, this storm continued to track to the NE and dropped a tornado dangerously close to the city of Tuscaloosa, causing damage to the south and southeast sides of the city.

We were very lucky that this was the only major storm to affect the Jackson Metro Area that day, but places to our south, like Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Magee, and Mendenhall kept getting hammered by tornadic supercells and large hail over and over again.

Just as we began the 5pm news, our viewing area had finally calmed down- all severe weather warnings had been allowed to expire as the cold front pushed through. Our Chief Meteorologist David Hartman had mentioned that he was wanting to go survey some of the damage and asked if I wanted to go (umm YEA!) After the 6pm news, we loaded up in a news truck and headed towards Clinton....

Before I show you some of the images I captured in some of the most heavily hit neighborhoods, I want to share with you a little bit as to why this particular storm has affected me a lot. You see, Clinton is the place where I grew up- I went to elementary school there, my grandparents lived there, and it's where my mom worked. I spent about 75% of my childhood there. Up until now, the only thing I knew was that the tornado had touched down on Springridge Road near I-20 and was moving NE'ly. Turns out, the storm had a predominantly eastward track, but if it had been due NE, my elementary school and my grandparents house would have been in the direct path.

This is where my dreams of becoming a meteorologist started. This building had a tin roof so every time it rained, you could hear it. Every time there was severe weather, we had to exit the building and seek shelter in the church which is just next door, but practically connected to this building. I suppose my dreams came out of a curiosity of what was happening above me- I could hear it, but I could not see it.

 On Friday, one of the first things that came across my mind was 'I hope the Mt. Salus kids are aware of what is happening and have taken shelter.' I was so worried that something bad had happened. Fortunately for them, the tornado tracked about 1 mile SE of the school. Not only was the tornado near my school, it was also near my grandparents house. After doing some analysis with Google Earth, I calculated that the tornado's direct path was .99 miles from the house we have in Clinton- very remarkable. It is really hard to explain how I feel about it, but I suppose because this storm came so close to disrupting great childhood memories that I have, that's why it is having such a huge impact. I just wonder, if this had been 10 years ago, same time, I would have been sitting in this very building above, wondering what was going on outside.

Some of my friends in Clinton were not as lucky as I was and my thoughts and prayers are with you in this difficult time.

....David and I drove into the Easthaven neighborhood on the east side of Clinton. This is where Eastside Elementary School is located. We were able to actually go inside one family's house that had been almost totally destroyed and I can tell you, it was very emotional to see this and talk to the family, luckily, no one was hurt. Here are a few photos from Easthaven:

This was a life-changing experience for me and it will be something that I talk about for the rest of my life.

I say it all the time, every time there is severe weather, and I get to help cover it, it reaffirms that this is exactly what God has called me to do. Not only is it about gaining a better understanding of His creation, but it is also about saving lives when the weather gets bad. That is one thing that I am starting to grasp. People's lives are in our hands in times like these.


Here is something I was working on in Google Earth which shows a rough path (based on what I observed) of the tornado:

Here, you can really see just how close it was to hitting my school and my house. I am still amazed and so glad that no one was killed in Clinton from this storm. Some other areas that received significant damage were Lakewood Memorial Cemetery, the Queens neighborhood in West Jackson, and areas along Shaw Road and Clinton Blvd. The neighborhood adjacent to Lakeview Dr. and HWY 80, and also the south end of Mt. Salus Road and Hannah Dr saw extensive damage.

Have a great week and God Bless!

Jake R

Round of Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for Friday afternoon

March-April are prime time for severe weather in the Deep South. As such, it is no surprise that it seems like it is every week we have chances for severe weather as the last of the Winter's mid-lattitude cyclones dig far enough south to interact with the warm, humid air which is becoming more commonplace as we progress through Spring into Summer.

It seems that the most recent severe weather outbreaks have been "busts," but the truth is, the ingredients never came full circle at the right time over our area. Most recently, on April 11, we were forecasting a severe weather event across much of the state and the SPC even had us placed under a Moderate Risk for severe weather. However, the cap (a warmer layer of air above the surface which prevents convective development) was too strong across NE and NW MS, but later on in the evening eroded in portions of Alabama. So, not a total bust, more an issue of timing in this case.

Despite this, many have become complacent about severe weather as it seems everyone overhypes the threat every time we have a chance for rain. But I want to caution you, each storm system is different than the previous. In fact, the storm system we are expecting tomorrow, is extremely dynamic and different than Monday's system, and really any other system we've seen so far this year.

Possibly the biggest difference is that this trough is negatively tilted. This has several implications. The first being how fast the system moves. Using the 500mb steering technique, instead of traversing W-E across the US like most systems do, this cyclone's negative tilt makes it harder to progress eastward. This means a prolonged chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and as long as this cyclone hangs out in the mid MS valley, the greater the chance we have of seeing some severe weather. Coupled with the slow movement, the negative tilt also indicates that this cyclone is more intense than N-S oriented troughs. The cold air is farther south and the warm air is farther north and this means a stronger low pressure center.

With this being unlike any system we've seen so far this year, I am hesitant to dismiss this possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak. Locally, the NWS Memphis and the NWS Jackson seem to be in line with the SPC on the chance for a dangerous severe weather event with the possibility of long-track tornadoes across NE MS.

Here's a link to the Jackson forecast discussion from this morning: AFD JAN
Here's a link to the Memphis forecast discussion from this morning: AFD Memphis

The best way to stay informed during any severe weather event is through a NOAA weather radio, so make sure you have one and that it is operating properly!

If anything changes, I will provide updates via twitter. You can follow me here: Follow Me on Twitter

Jake R
Jake R

Weather for Super Bulldog Weekend looks...SUPER!

Wow! What a difference just a day can make. This time on Monday, many of us in Mississippi were still dealing with severe weather. In fact, a group of my friends and I had to take shelter in the Chevron on US HWY 18 in Brandon, MS as the dangerous squall line moved through the area. A Tornado Warning was out for Rankin County at the time and we didn't want to take any risks. While we were fine when it was all said and done, I received a few pictures of what appeared to be a wall cloud near "the stack" from about the same time we took cover and there were reports of some tree damage in the Fondren area. All in all, Monday's storm reports from this entire system totaled 1,377!! As you might have guessed, that is a record! Most of the reports were wind damage reports because the powerful squall line stretched over nearly a dozen states, but there were a few reports of tornadoes in western Kentucky/northern Tennessee and in east Louisiana/southern Mississippi. Possibly the most notable for us in Mississippi was and EF-2 touchdown in Jones County that caused significant damage in the town of Ellisville. Unfortunately, there was one fatality in Mississippi from Monday's storms in Copiah County. Luckily, this system was not as bad as originally forecast.

However, if you've stepped outside today, there is hardly any evidence that we had severe weather just two days ago. Some folks in extreme northern Mississippi woke up to some frost this morning, but all of us really warmed up efficiently this afternoon into the mid and upper 70s! That is thanks to an area of High Pressure now centered just off to our east, allowing for southerly winds and helping keep our skies mostly clear! Tonight, don't expect any more frost as temperatures will be nearly 15 degrees warmer in most spots. Not only are our low temperatures increasing, we'll tack on about 8 or 9 degrees to today's high for tomorrow, and then even more for the weekend as temperatures will reach the mid to upper 80s Friday- Sunday with no significant chance for rain in that time! Some spots in southern Mississippi will likely reach the 90 degree mark for the first time in 2011.

We are on the heels of one of the most anticipated weekends in Bulldog Country- Super Bulldog Weekend 2011. Good news! The weather looks like it will cooperate perfectly for the entire weekend, with events starting as early as tomorrow evening! To get a list of Super Bulldog Weekend festivities, click this link: http://www.mstateathletics.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=16800&ATCLID=205097313

Again, there is no significant chance for rain over the weekend, but we only have to go out as far as Monday to find our next chance for rain and thunderstorms. Right now, the SPC has included parts of northern Mississippi in its Day 5 Outlook for Severe Weather, but it is still too far out to hammer out any details. I'll continue to watch it as it unfolds!

Hope you guys have a fantastic weekend and be safe!

Jake R

A "Significant" Severe Weather Event Possible Monday/Tuesday

Finally, we have begun to dry out after such a gloomy week! The trough which brought us all the inclement weather, clouds and very cool temperatures will exit off the East coast and be replaced by an area of High Pressure. This will allow for two sunny, dry days this weekend and we will warm back up into the 70s and even 80s for Sunday and Monday!

However, once this High scoots off to our east, that will create a return flow set up and we will start to see our winds become southerly and as a result, we'll start getting an increase in moisture just in time for our next weather maker. Here's the current set up we can diagnose:

Here is the latest 500mb chart from the GFS forecast model showing vorticity. The most dominant features on the map are a strong ridge out west and an impressive trough affecting the east. But pay attention just off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and BC. That dip in the height lines is the shortwave trough we expect to cause some severe weather over the Southeast Monday and Tuesday.

This system is still to far away from us in time to be diagnosed by the NAM, so we'll stick with the GFS for now. As we go through time, this shortwave will dig south across the western US and be poised over  the central US by 7AM Monday: 

The Storm Prediction Center has made it very evident that this has the potential to be a major severe weather event for us in the Deep South. Here's what they have to say:

For Monday, there is a slight risk of severe weather for the eastern Great Plains

Read the discussion for Monday here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html 

Mississippi is included in the Day 4 Outlook:

With this being said, skepticism is still present for some as a few of the last Severe Weather forecasts have been complete busts for parts of MS. Let's do a little more analysis and see what we come up with.

Here's what things look like for 7PM Monday:

Notice, the GFS predicts a squall line to sweep through the area in advance of the cold front.

Monday afternoon, there will be plenty instability for the storms to work with IF they form. This map shows CAPE values:

At this point, this system still bears much watching as it develops and moves across the country. Even though our last few severe weather forecasts have had some pitfalls, one only needs to look back 1 year to see what severe weather events in April in MS can do. An EF-4 tornado terrorized Yazoo City, MS and several other locales along its nearly 200 mile long path of destruction. Stay weather aware this weekend as you enjoy some nice weather finally and I will continue to watch this developing system for Monday into Tuesday morning.