The Battle Continues!

Another image from the 2008 MS River Floods. This is from Newman Road in Issaquena County

We've been under the influence of a ridge of high pressure which has been anchored over the Southeastern states for the past several days. This is what has kept us high and dry, and pretty warm and muggy too. A closed low out in the Great Plains is pushing a potent shortwave trough towards Mississippi. At this time, showers and thunderstorms, many of which have been severe are affecting portions of the Arklatex, but I expect this activity to fizzle out as it approaches the MS River by dawn. With that being said, there still remains a small chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm along the MS River when you wake up tomorrow- Jackson should stay dry tonight.

This same complex will produce an outflow boundary which will be important for tomorrow's forecast. All models are pointing to this boundary setting up somewhere in northern MS, along and/or north of HWY 82 tomorrow afternoon. This is where the best chance of thunderstorms exists tomorrow. Jackson has a slight chance of seeing some thunderstorm activity, but those chances really drop off as you head south of I-20. This complex should also create an area of clouds that we'll have to deal with first thing tomorrow morning, but I expect the sun to break out by late morning and into the afternoon, but it will certainly be another hot one!

For now, this will be the final battle between our two weather features- the sultry High and the potent Low. For the first part of next week, we'll see that ridge of high pressure strengthen and build back into our region, keeping us hot and steamy.

The next best chance of widespread rain arrives late Wednesday into Thursday.

1927 Flood Record Broken at Vicksburg

This is from the 2008 flooding at our deer camp in Valley Park, MS. This is our entrance road, marked with the red gate posts on either side.

Today, unfortunately, another record has been broken in terms of this historic, catastrophic flooding caused by the MS River swelling miles beyond its banks. At 3:00PM this afternoon, the National Weather Service at Jackson was reporting a river stage of 56.4'- which breaks the 1927 record at 56.2'. Keep in mind flood stage sits at 43'. The river at Vicksburg will finally crest sometime in the next week, but don't expect the water to drain out overnight- it's going to be a long recovery process.

The flooding is so bad, several road closures to major thoroughfares in the western part of the state have had to be issued. You can get a complete list of those by visiting MDOT's website here: MS ROAD CLOSURES

We have a deercamp in Valley Park, MS, which is about 25 miles north of Vicksburg just off of HWY 61. I am about to travel that direction in order to get a closer look. I will try to get some pictures while I am out.

Elsewhere in the state, expect a pretty gloomy day tomorrow as clouds will move back into the area (no rain chance) but it will be unseasonably cool, highs may not even get into the 60s in some locales and it will be pretty windy. Expect a slow moderation of temps into the 80s by the end of the week into the weekend, and the sun will return for Tuesday, and stick with us until our next rain chance arrives late in the week into the weekend. Stay tuned for more updates and follow me on twitter @weather_Jake

Potentially Catastrophic Flooding on the Horizon

With a cold front currently slicing through central Alabama, cooler temperatures are being ushered into central Mississippi. We are also dealing with some pretty heavy rainfall this morning. I expect the rain to begin to taper off around lunchtime into the early afternoon, but I doubt we will see much sun today. No severe weather with this system is expected which is great news! We can look forward to full sunshine to return for Wednesday, and remain with us through the early part of next week. High temperatures today will be about 20-25 degrees cooler than what we've grown accustomed to the past few weeks, but this cool spell will be short lived. Temperatures will begin to moderate starting tomorrow, with highs in the lower to mid 70s, but by the weekend, you can expect middle to upper 80s to return. A check on temperatures right now shows most of Mississippi sitting at or just above the 50 degree mark, and I've turned the radar on so you can see where the rain is ongoing:

Also, once the rain pushes out of the area, we'll still have a lot of cloud cover to deal with. Clearing line is currently right across central Arkansas:

As I am sure you are aware, we are in store for some historic and potentially catastrophic flooding in the Ohio and Mississippi Rive Valleys. Here in Mississippi, flood waters are already beginning to rise in areas that typically flood this time of year, but we have a long way to go before the waters begin to recede, especially with all this rainfall that is occurring over the area at this time. 

The Mississippi Department of Transportation will be CLOSING off ALL of HWY 465 starting at HWY 61 (this is just north of the Yazoo River, right after you cross the big bridge) and MDOT reported that the closure of the road could come as early as today. Places like Eagle Lake and Lake Chotard are expected to experience flooding very soon. Here is a general summary of river stages and how the current levels compare to flood stage and also to previous major events:

We have a deer camp located in Valley Park in Issaquena County and we are expecting major flooding to impact our camp. This particular area is no stranger to flooding. In fact, some degree of flooding occurs nearly every year. Our two story cabin was built in 1973 and has never had water enter the second floor- we are thinking that might change this year. As shown in the graphic above, area rivers are expected to crest around the middle to end of this month. I will be traveling up there in the coming weeks and will be documenting the flooding as I see it. Hopefully, people who live in this area year round have already made the necessary preparations to minimize property damage. This looks to be yet another event we will not soon forget.

Remember to follow me on twitter @weather_Jake for more frequent updates on local news and weather!

Jake R