Weekend Cold Front

     A deep longwave trough continues to carve out over the western half of the country while a persistent upper level ridge remains anchored over the Gulf Coast states. With the pressure gradient tightening between these two systems, winds have really increased across the southern plains. Winds today were sustained at 15-25mph with gusts as high as 30mph in Texoma. Winds will be just as strong tomorrow.

    With more moisture returning tomorrow, there will be more cloud cover but I still expect another day of temperatures way above average. I'm expecting highs to top out between 90 and 94 tomorrow after starting out in the upper 60s Friday morning.

    Rain & storms will be possible out in the Texas panhandle as early as mid-afternoon tomorrow, some of which may approach severe limits. I am not anticipating any issues with sever weather in Texoma with this next system. Models have backed off some on how much rain this front will create, but most areas have a decent shot of seeing at least 1/2" of rain. Saturday morning looks to feature the heaviest of rain, but rain will be possible at anytime on Saturday. Showers may linger into Sunday morning as well. For now, I do not see any problems for high school football games Friday night in terms of rain but keep in mind it will be quite windy!

    The cool down behind this front will be very short lived. Another stretch of 90s is possible as we head into next week. Our average last 90º day is October 10th but it has been as late as October 31st (happening several times) that our last 90º day occurred.

   Another potent system is forecast to move in about a week from now and could bring us our first taste of true fall-like air. Hopefully we'll be able to throw some 40s for lows and 70s for highs in the 7-day forecast then.

FRIDAY: Morning- 68; Afternoon- 92 w/ increasing clouds; Winds S 15-25mph, G 30mph.

SATURDAY: Morning- 72; Afternoon- 84; Rain chance 60%.

SUNDAY: Morning- 64; Afternoon- 85 Rain chance 30% w/ afternoon clearing possible.

Jake Reed
Skywarn 6 Meteorologist
jreed@kauz.com
Twitter: JakeReedTV

Spring-like Storms Return

The pattern which has had a stranglehold on the country over the last several days is a classic Omega Block. An upper low off the coast of California, one over the southeast and ridging in between.

On a bit of a smaller scale, the west coast of the US has been under the classic Rex blocking type of pattern: upper low over California with a strong high pressure over southern British Columbia, Canada. This causes strong offshore flow over much of the west coast, giving places like Seattle record warmth due to downsloping off the cascades.

As the upper low over the southeast exits, so does the record-smashing cold! Numerous all-time record lows and record minimum high temperatures were broken from Texas to Georgia over the past week due to this one system.

Our attention now turns to this new storm system swirling over California. The Omega block pattern is not a terribly progressive one, although the feature is slowly beginning to make eastward movement. It's been almost stationary for a few days, but impulses, or shortwaves, in the atmosphere have been spawned from this parent system, bringing some rain and storms to drought-plagued parts of Texas. 

As the upper low moves over the southern Rockies, more concentrated energy will be focused across the southern Plains, increasing storm coverage and intensity. The Storm Prediction Center has introduced the standard Slight Risk of severe weather in its Day 1-3 outlooks (today, Wednesday and Thursday):

For now, the tornado threat appears on the low side and at least for later this afternoon and evening, limited moisture will be an inhibiting factor.

With that being said, some of the high resolution models do develop storms over western Oklahoma and west Texas. Later today, the NSSL WRF is suggesting the storms will really get going in earnest later today and early this evening:

For Wednesday afternoon, the models are showing the majority of storm activity north of the Red River (for now):

As the upper low continues to track east, it becomes more nebulous and less amplified, but should still be enough to provide enough upper support for strong-to-severe storms. 

The current 5-day rain outlook from the HPC keeps the heaviest totals across southeast and coastal parts of Texas:

Jake Reed

Skywarn 6 Meteorologist

Twitter: @JakeReedTV

Facebook: Meteorologist Jake Reed

Tornado Caught on Tape

A strong cold front slowly sagging through the southern Plains kicked off some intense thunderstorms over parts of west Texas and the Panhandle earlier this afternoon. The storms formed over a very compact area but packed quite a punch, causing damaging winds, large hail and even a brief tornado. Check out this video from near Silverton, TX:

This storm was very impressive on radar for over an hour, maintaining a classic supercell structure. Check out some of the radar images:

 Around the time the image below was captured, a Mesonet station at Silverton High School measured a wind gust of 66mph...trained spotters and storm chasers reported seeing a tornado on the ground a short time later, as the cell moved east of Silverton.

Easter Sunday Severe Weather

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect for parts of central, south and west Mississippi thru 8PM tonight. A list of counties can be found here:

The potent line of storms continues to hold together as it marches to the east at 40mph:

HAZARDS: -Damaging wind gusts 50-70mph

                     -Hail up to quarter size (1" diameter)

A period of heavy rain will follow the initial blast of strong winds. This system should exit the area by sunset.

For more frequent updates, find me on Twitter. 

Possible Late March Cold Snap

    It's hard not to enjoy your spring break vacation or stay-cation with weather as nice as we've had this week. Much of the country has been basking in warmer-than-normal temperatures for the latter half of the week and the overall pattern has been quite docile. We can thank the zonal upper level pattern for that:

     When the jet stream lifts far to the north, closer to the Canadian border, this keeps the colder air well away from us...but who's complaining right? Friday afternoon, a bubble of warm air 70º+ extended well into the central Plains...many spots eclipsing the 80º mark:

     Expect this pattern to stick around for at least the next 3 days before some changes...maybe drastic...begin to move in. 

     Using something called teleconnections, we can make general forecasts pertaining to overall patterns in the upcoming weeks and since spring officially arrives next week...everyone wants to know when they can start planting their gardens and when can they expect the warm weather to stick around. Take a look below at the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation graphs...keeping in mind that when these indices go negative, that typically spells cold air outbreaks over the eastern 2/3 of the country:

Arctic Oscillation

North Atlantic Oscillation

Note that the consensus is pretty good on both indices becoming negative through the last week of March. The GFS 2-meter temperature anomaly supports this theory...the map below is valid next Saturday, the 23rd...keeping in mind this is how much below or above normal the temperature will be:

All this to say...don't be shocked to see a cold stretch of weather as we round out the month of March. Here in Jackson, our average last freeze usually happens during the middle of April, but has occurred as late as the end of April.

Not only will our stretch of very warm weather be interrupted, things look to turn stormier early next week as a cold front approaches us. It's still too early to try and iron out specifics, but the SPC has placed parts of the south under an enhanced risk area to see severe weather...as of now the timing appears to be late Monday into early Tuesday, however the greatest risk of strong storms may barely clip us to the north and east; stay tuned:

Monday Evening Forecast Update

A quick update on what you can expect for the remainder of the night...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for all counties along and south of US HWY 82 until 10PM. The overall tornado threat appears very low, with the exception of areas along the immediate coast in Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana. The moisture return from the south never really amounted to much today so severe weather has not been much of an issue, with the exception of some isolated reports of hail.

Pockets of heavy rain and gusty winds are ongoing across central Mississippi, with strong storms confined along the immediate Gulf Coast:

The RPM has done an exceptional job handling this system...the image below is valid at 2AM tomorrow morning, note that the bulk of the rain begins moving out of Mississippi and into Alabama.

Our neck of the woods has certainly seen more than enough rain so far this winter. In fact, many spots are recording some of the wettest winters on record. The RPM is suggesting a bullseye of 2"+ of rainfall over parts of southeast Alabama, and flash flooding and river flooding are of equal concern there:

Even as the rain begins moving to our east, the upper level energy will pass over Mississippi during the day Tuesday, keeping a lot of clouds around. It will be a very raw day with highs struggling to hit the mid 50s with a brisk north wind, exceeding 20 miles per hour at times:

Cooler, drier weather settles in for the remainder of the week with sunshine returning by Wednesday. An even more noticeable shot of cold air arrives this weekend where highs may not make it out of the 40s and lows dip back into deep-freeze territory.

-Meteorologist Jake Reed