Blame the Groundhog!

As much as we may not want to admit that a small, furry rodent could possibly have some mystical weather prediction capabilities, at least for us here in Mississippi, that little groundhog was right- spring has come early! Sure, we love the warm sunshine and warmer temperatures, but this also enables the ingredients we need for severe weather to begin coming togther. We have enjoyed a very dry last several days, but the truth is, we are in a drought. We do have decent chances of rain on the horizon, but unfortunately, it could come in the way of some severe storms.

It looks as if late Thursday night and early Friday morning will be primetime to get any strong storms to develop. It looks as if the best forcing and best ingredients to support severe t-storm development will remain well north of Interstate 20. Nonetheless, this will be quite a potent system, so I cannot rule out a stray stronger thunderstorm in the Jackson Metro Area. Here's the Storm Prediction Center's take on who has the best chance of seeing the strongest storms.

This can also be supported when looking at the GFS prediction for 6Z Friday (12:00am CST):

Although we will have most of the ingredients needed to support strong thunderstorms, I think most of the forcing and dynamic support will be confined to areas around the surface low- the Ozarks into West and then Central Tennessee, and maybe extreme north Mississippi- but I will keep an eye on it.

Even with most of the ingredients in place, when looking at the NAM and GFS through Bufkit, the rainfall totals are less than impressive, the GFS being more aggressive calling for .7" with the event Thursday night into Friday. Now, this does not necessarily indicate that we will not see any strong storms, but it does lean itself to maybe a quick line of thunderstorms moving through in association with the cold front. And again looking at the GFS for 6Z Friday, you can see the heaviest concentration of rain lies to our north.

As always, there is only so much we can be certain about as this system is still a few days out. I will keep a close eye on it and have more information posted on my Twitter page. You can follow me @JakeReed2

We have an active weather pattern settling in the Deep South, in fact another system could  bring some strong storms in here by the time Monday rolls in- but let's get through this first round, first!

Once the cold front pushes through Friday morning, we will NOT see a surge of arctic air. A Pacific airmass will infiltrate us and leave us with temperatures more average for this time of year- Highs in the 60s and low 70s, and lows in the upper 40s and 50s.

TV Debut on 16WAPT News This Morning

Words cannot describe how blessed I feel when I look back on the last few months of my life. I feel as though God has really intervened in my life and has directed me down an incredibly rewarding path. One Bible verse that comes to mind which I have taped on my door and I read it every morning is: "Lead me, O Lord, in your righteousness because of my enemies- make straight your way before me." Psalm 5:8. Last semester and this one too have been the most challenging yet I have never felt so at home and at peace. I have made some amazing friends and have some truly fantastic professors who really do care about their students and want to see them all succeed- I do not feel like I would have gotten this same experience had I gone to school somewhere else.

Probably the most significant achievement has been landing an internship with 16WAPT News in the weather department. Growing up, this is the station that I always watched so getting a chance to actually work there is still something I am trying to grasp. David Hartman and Ethan Huston have been great mentors so far and I look forward to continue working with them. I want to say a special thank you to Heather Sophia who really took me under her wing over the Christmas Holidays. Not only did she teach me things about meteorology and the broadcasting industry, she made sure to balance it with a good dosing of fun and down-to-Earth advice. I hope she gets back into TV one day!  Having to be at the station and 2:30am might seem like a bad thing, but I would not have traded those shifts for anything! One of the most memorable experiences was the Severe Weather Outbreak on New Year's Eve. It is hard for me to put into words how incredible that night was, but I can say that God really spoke to me and made it very clear that this is the career I want. 

Two of my biggest supporters, my Poppy and Meah, both passed away within the last two years. I wish they were still around to experience the great things I have been through in the last six months. However, I know that they are looking down on me with the biggest of smiles. 

From Sledding to Sweating: This week's big warm up!

I hope everyone had a chance to get out and enjoy Wednesday night's snow storm and Thursday's snow day that MSU students will NOT have to make up! We picked up approximately 5.5" of snow here in Starkville. Enjoy these pictures I took on campus Wednesday evening as the system was winding down:

But now, get ready to break out the shorts. I feel a bout of spring fever coming on!

The weather pattern we've been used to pretty much since early December is about to change remarkably. Where we have been getting different storm systems every few days or so, we will now see long periods of quiet weather conditions- and it is going to be warm. In fact, tonight may be the last freeze we see for quite a while!

A 1032mb High Pressure center is located right on the SE coast of Texas. This will be 1/2 of our weather maker for the next week or so. As it migrates east into the northern Gulf of Mexico and weakens, we will see southwesterly flow and then southerly flow, help bringing us some much warmer temperatures. I'm talking 10-15 degrees above average.

And you will also need to break out those sunglasses, as we will see a very sunny next few days. That is because we have dry air in place aloft and in conjunction with the High Pressure Center will not allow for cloud development. I thought it was pretty interesting to do a side-by-side comparison with a Water Vapor Image and a Sounding "Skew-T":

On the right, the oranges and blacks indicate the very dry air that is in place at about 700mb. Now compare it to the image above, which shows temperature (the red line) and dewpoint (the green line). Notice the dewpoint, a standard indicator of atmospheric moisture, disappears off the image starting at 700mb and doesn't show back up until nearly the tropopause! So dry air in place aloft will allow us to enjoy predominantly clear skies for the next couple of days!




Hope you guys have a great rest of the weekend and enjoy this gift from Mother Nature!

Jake R

Old Man Winter Hangs On!

If you feel like it was just a week ago you were anticipating another Winter Storm here in the Magnolia State, that makes two of us!

Yet again, we have the possibility of seeing some accumulating snowfall for much of the north half of the state. In fact, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for all counties along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor- this includes: Vicksburg, Jackson, Greenville, Yazoo City, Winona, Greenwood, Oxford, Tupelo, Starkville, and Columbus. The counties highlighted in blue are under the Winter Storm Watch from 12pm Wednesday until Thursday Morning:

The forecast models we meteorologists look at are in somewhat of a disagreement as to how much snowfall is expected to accumulate, but timing is pretty definite. The GFS and the NAM both place the system as taking shape across the Delta counties beginning on Wednesday afternoon and migrating east towards the Golden Triangle by about 7pm, and lingering until about midnight or so. So if you have travel plans Wednesday afternoon and evening I would highly caution you to wait and assess the condition of the roads as they will likely become hazardous after dark.

**As for accumulations: First, let's see what the NAM is predicting:

If you're eyes just bugged out of your head, that makes two of us, again! I will say the NAM is being very aggressive with respect to the GFS, but with this system, the NAM is more in line with the Canadian and European Models which leads me to lean more towards the NAM. What you're looking at here, you can see the timeline at the bottom of the picture which you read from right to left- noticing the blue lines begin about 7pm on Wednesday. The blue lines are the liquid water equivalent and then the gray bars show the snowfall equivalent. In total, the NAM places Starkville with just over 4" of snow...

But what about the GFS?:

As you can see, the GFS is not painting this to be a major event. The GFS is trending towards this system to significantly weaken as it traverses Mississippi and also to clear out of here a few hours quicker than the NAM. Still beginning about 7pm Wednesday, the GFS is predicting less than .5" of snow here in the Starkville area. The GFS has done some major flip-flopping in the past week. A week ago, the GFS was callling for sub-zero temps in MS and nearly a foot of snow, and now you can see it has backed off considerably.

Based on the models I have looked at, I think it is a pretty good bet that most areas along and north of HWY 82 (Columbus, Starkville, Greenwood, Greenville) will see at least 1" of snow. The system will be running out of steam as it marches east across our area so heavier snowfall totals will likely occur west of Interstate 55- upwards of 3-4" possible there. Leaning more towards the NAM at this time, I am calling for about 2-3" of snow for Starkville with some inevitable variation in outlying areas.

For those of you in the Jackson Metro Area, this event will likely start out as a period of cold rain quickly changing to snow after dark on Wednesday afternoon. Some accumulations are possible along I-20- I'm thinking anywhere from a trace to as much as 2" in some localized areas.

Some good news: Once this system pushes out of our area, things will turn very Spring-like. I'm talking temperatures moderating in the lower 60s and a dry-spell for at least the next 5-7 days- definitely something to look forward to!

Have a great rest of the week!
Jake Reed