Old Man Winter Hangs On!

If you feel like it was just a week ago you were anticipating another Winter Storm here in the Magnolia State, that makes two of us!

Yet again, we have the possibility of seeing some accumulating snowfall for much of the north half of the state. In fact, Winter Storm Watches have been posted for all counties along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor- this includes: Vicksburg, Jackson, Greenville, Yazoo City, Winona, Greenwood, Oxford, Tupelo, Starkville, and Columbus. The counties highlighted in blue are under the Winter Storm Watch from 12pm Wednesday until Thursday Morning:

The forecast models we meteorologists look at are in somewhat of a disagreement as to how much snowfall is expected to accumulate, but timing is pretty definite. The GFS and the NAM both place the system as taking shape across the Delta counties beginning on Wednesday afternoon and migrating east towards the Golden Triangle by about 7pm, and lingering until about midnight or so. So if you have travel plans Wednesday afternoon and evening I would highly caution you to wait and assess the condition of the roads as they will likely become hazardous after dark.

**As for accumulations: First, let's see what the NAM is predicting:

If you're eyes just bugged out of your head, that makes two of us, again! I will say the NAM is being very aggressive with respect to the GFS, but with this system, the NAM is more in line with the Canadian and European Models which leads me to lean more towards the NAM. What you're looking at here, you can see the timeline at the bottom of the picture which you read from right to left- noticing the blue lines begin about 7pm on Wednesday. The blue lines are the liquid water equivalent and then the gray bars show the snowfall equivalent. In total, the NAM places Starkville with just over 4" of snow...

But what about the GFS?:

As you can see, the GFS is not painting this to be a major event. The GFS is trending towards this system to significantly weaken as it traverses Mississippi and also to clear out of here a few hours quicker than the NAM. Still beginning about 7pm Wednesday, the GFS is predicting less than .5" of snow here in the Starkville area. The GFS has done some major flip-flopping in the past week. A week ago, the GFS was callling for sub-zero temps in MS and nearly a foot of snow, and now you can see it has backed off considerably.

Based on the models I have looked at, I think it is a pretty good bet that most areas along and north of HWY 82 (Columbus, Starkville, Greenwood, Greenville) will see at least 1" of snow. The system will be running out of steam as it marches east across our area so heavier snowfall totals will likely occur west of Interstate 55- upwards of 3-4" possible there. Leaning more towards the NAM at this time, I am calling for about 2-3" of snow for Starkville with some inevitable variation in outlying areas.

For those of you in the Jackson Metro Area, this event will likely start out as a period of cold rain quickly changing to snow after dark on Wednesday afternoon. Some accumulations are possible along I-20- I'm thinking anywhere from a trace to as much as 2" in some localized areas.

Some good news: Once this system pushes out of our area, things will turn very Spring-like. I'm talking temperatures moderating in the lower 60s and a dry-spell for at least the next 5-7 days- definitely something to look forward to!

Have a great rest of the week!
Jake Reed