July 4th Sizzler!

Hope everyone is having a great Independence Day so far! Here's how things are shaping up for this afternoon:

15Z surface analysis showed a large, nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the mid-Mississippi River Valley, east into the Ohio River Valley. Numerous clusters of thunderstorms are already ongoing in these areas.

An expansive hot airmass has been the persistent weather feature for several days now- temperatures already rising through the low 90s, but dew points are especially soupy- low to mid 70s across the Magnolia State.

This complex of storms and associated frontal boundary will begin to slowly sag south towards us, and with such a warm, moist environment, afternoon thunderstorms are likely. Another point of interest is an outflow boundary these storms are causing which has just passed through the Memphis area. This secondary boundary could potentially be a focal point for showers/storms to develop later today.

A lot of folks will be outdoors this afternoon for festivities, etc. so it is very important that we all stay alert to the changing weather. Have a plan of action to ensure you stay safe this afternoon if the weather gets rough. With these storms, expect lots of cloud-to-ground lightning, possible hail, brief damaging wind gusts, and torrential rains. What we typically see in Mississippi in the summer time is the storms not really moving much once they form. Very localized areas could easily pick up two, even three inches of rain in just a matter of hours. So if and when a warning is issued for your location, please take it seriously! It would be a good idea to have a weather radio with you if you will be outdoors this afternoon, away from TV or radio.

Even with the rain chances, the hot airmass just is not going anywhere anytime soon- high temperatures will continue to flirt with the century mark, with real-feels well into the triple digits. Expect afternoon and evening downpours to develop at least into the first part of this week. No 'major' changes in the overall weather pattern are forecast to occur at this time.