September 22, 2011

Tomorrow at 4:05 am marks the official end to Summer, but if you've stepped outside today, it certainly doesn't feel like almost Fall. After a foggy morning in places, the sun came out in full force and we're sitting in the middle 80s in most places in north Mississippi and it's pretty muggy too. Here's how it looks in Columbus right now:

-Alfa Insurance Sky Cam

Tonight/Tomorrow: I am watching a cool front off to our west and it is slowly making its way east. Right now, showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been severe, are firing along the front in central Arkansas and western Louisiana:

The latest model data brings the cool front through north Mississippi early Friday morning through midday. Most of the energy associated with this system is situated across the Great Lakes in the form of an upper level low. Additionally, the models suggest that moisture supply will diminish as the front moves east, so I do not expect at this time that we will see a major rain event area-wide. Here is *modeled* radar reflectivity for 15Z Friday Morning:

Not only is most of the energy confined to our north, the coldest temperatures are as well. We will see high temperatures knocked down a few degrees, but this isn't going to be a big arctic blast. What you will notice is much more refreshing air filtering in especially during the day on Saturday as models are bringing in some considerably drier air and lots of sunshine. 

After Friday, our next best shot at rain looks to be Tuesday evening as that upper level low parked over the Great Lakes tries to send another front through our area.

Tropics: The latest on Tropical Storm Ophelia: Model guidance curves Ophelia away from the Caribbean and keeps this cyclone a tropical storm. We'll have to watch and see if this re-curving trend continues:

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