Severe Weather Outbreak for Tuesday Afternoon/Evening

After a splendid spring-like weekend across MS, much of the state is bracing for the most impressive severe weather outbreak since New Year's Eve- that event spawned 14 tornadoes in MS. The system that will push in here tomorrow will also pack quite a punch, especially after lunch time and into the early night hours.

We must check several parameters to see just what we can expect tomorrow:

First, let's gauge upper level support:

This is an image from the GFS forecasting the Jet Stream for 6pm Tuesday. Notice the area in the purple and even the lighter purple embedded- this indicates winds aloft of 180kts! These strong winds will provide support to storms that form tomorrow. 

But in order to tap into this upper level energy, there has to be instability to get the storms to fire:

This is another image from the GFS forecasting dew points and streamlines for 12pm Tuesday. Typically, if dew points are below 60 degrees, major severe weather outbreaks are hard to get started. Having enough moisture in the air to support thunderstorms is extremely crucial. Notice that from near I-20 and to the south, that shade of green indicates the 60 degree dew point line. So right now, the best instability looks to be in this region. 

It is important to note that the amount of sheer (wind speed and direction changing with height) is phenomenal. So that does introduce the risk for tornadoes- but only if the storms can really "grow" will that become an issue so as long as instability is questionable, I really think the main threat will be straight line winds.

However, I want to include a passage directly from the most recent forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS that really hones in on the tornado threat and also talks about some other factors of this system: 

Yes, you read it right- there looks to be a possibility of some snow flurries on the back end of this system in N MS- that shows you just how powerful this system is forecast to be!

The good news is that once this system pushes out of our region (by about 9-10pm Tuesday) we can expect much more quiet conditions to prevail the next few days- but the cold air will sticking around- I'm talking highs only in the 30s for Wednesday!

Stay alert to local weather outlets tomorrow afternoon! I will offer frequent updates on my twitter page @JakeReed2 and also some on Facebook "Jake Reed" so make preparations now for tomorrows storms. Review safety measures and prepare accordingly!

Jake R