Round of Possibly Severe Thunderstorms for Friday afternoon

March-April are prime time for severe weather in the Deep South. As such, it is no surprise that it seems like it is every week we have chances for severe weather as the last of the Winter's mid-lattitude cyclones dig far enough south to interact with the warm, humid air which is becoming more commonplace as we progress through Spring into Summer.

It seems that the most recent severe weather outbreaks have been "busts," but the truth is, the ingredients never came full circle at the right time over our area. Most recently, on April 11, we were forecasting a severe weather event across much of the state and the SPC even had us placed under a Moderate Risk for severe weather. However, the cap (a warmer layer of air above the surface which prevents convective development) was too strong across NE and NW MS, but later on in the evening eroded in portions of Alabama. So, not a total bust, more an issue of timing in this case.

Despite this, many have become complacent about severe weather as it seems everyone overhypes the threat every time we have a chance for rain. But I want to caution you, each storm system is different than the previous. In fact, the storm system we are expecting tomorrow, is extremely dynamic and different than Monday's system, and really any other system we've seen so far this year.

Possibly the biggest difference is that this trough is negatively tilted. This has several implications. The first being how fast the system moves. Using the 500mb steering technique, instead of traversing W-E across the US like most systems do, this cyclone's negative tilt makes it harder to progress eastward. This means a prolonged chance for multiple rounds of thunderstorms and as long as this cyclone hangs out in the mid MS valley, the greater the chance we have of seeing some severe weather. Coupled with the slow movement, the negative tilt also indicates that this cyclone is more intense than N-S oriented troughs. The cold air is farther south and the warm air is farther north and this means a stronger low pressure center.

With this being unlike any system we've seen so far this year, I am hesitant to dismiss this possibility of a significant severe weather outbreak. Locally, the NWS Memphis and the NWS Jackson seem to be in line with the SPC on the chance for a dangerous severe weather event with the possibility of long-track tornadoes across NE MS.

Here's a link to the Jackson forecast discussion from this morning: AFD JAN
Here's a link to the Memphis forecast discussion from this morning: AFD Memphis

The best way to stay informed during any severe weather event is through a NOAA weather radio, so make sure you have one and that it is operating properly!

If anything changes, I will provide updates via twitter. You can follow me here: Follow Me on Twitter

Jake R
Jake R