A "Significant" Severe Weather Event Possible Monday/Tuesday

Finally, we have begun to dry out after such a gloomy week! The trough which brought us all the inclement weather, clouds and very cool temperatures will exit off the East coast and be replaced by an area of High Pressure. This will allow for two sunny, dry days this weekend and we will warm back up into the 70s and even 80s for Sunday and Monday!

However, once this High scoots off to our east, that will create a return flow set up and we will start to see our winds become southerly and as a result, we'll start getting an increase in moisture just in time for our next weather maker. Here's the current set up we can diagnose:

Here is the latest 500mb chart from the GFS forecast model showing vorticity. The most dominant features on the map are a strong ridge out west and an impressive trough affecting the east. But pay attention just off the coast of Washington, Oregon, and BC. That dip in the height lines is the shortwave trough we expect to cause some severe weather over the Southeast Monday and Tuesday.

This system is still to far away from us in time to be diagnosed by the NAM, so we'll stick with the GFS for now. As we go through time, this shortwave will dig south across the western US and be poised over  the central US by 7AM Monday: 

The Storm Prediction Center has made it very evident that this has the potential to be a major severe weather event for us in the Deep South. Here's what they have to say:

For Monday, there is a slight risk of severe weather for the eastern Great Plains

Read the discussion for Monday here: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html 

Mississippi is included in the Day 4 Outlook:

With this being said, skepticism is still present for some as a few of the last Severe Weather forecasts have been complete busts for parts of MS. Let's do a little more analysis and see what we come up with.

Here's what things look like for 7PM Monday:

Notice, the GFS predicts a squall line to sweep through the area in advance of the cold front.

Monday afternoon, there will be plenty instability for the storms to work with IF they form. This map shows CAPE values:

At this point, this system still bears much watching as it develops and moves across the country. Even though our last few severe weather forecasts have had some pitfalls, one only needs to look back 1 year to see what severe weather events in April in MS can do. An EF-4 tornado terrorized Yazoo City, MS and several other locales along its nearly 200 mile long path of destruction. Stay weather aware this weekend as you enjoy some nice weather finally and I will continue to watch this developing system for Monday into Tuesday morning.