Weekend Washout

The perfect description for this Saturday is one word: washout. An area of low pressure is organizing in the Gulf Of Mexico, just off the coast of Texas. Showers and storms are already noted on radar:

Once this low pressure system organizes through the evening, it will begin to track off to the northeast, hugging the coastline of Louisiana before slowly turning inland and tracking across extreme SE Mississippi and into southern Alabama. 

I am expecting some torrential rain amounts with this storm. The following is the amount of precipitation that is predicted to fall per the 12Z NAM over the next 48 hours:

Note that just to the north of the track of the low, the heaviest corridor of rain is expected to occur. The latest guidance suggests that corridor will be along a line stretching from near Baton Rouge, Louisiana, through Hattiesburg, Mississippi, up I-59 into central Alabama. Most locations will pick up on the order of 2" of rain while some spots may see as much as 4 or more! Here is a closer look at Mississippi, according to the NAM:

This storm system is also expected to bring severe weather to coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida as well as some measurable snowfall for Tennessee and Kentucky, and up the spine of the Appalachians. Let's quickly look at where the most snow is expected to fall per the latest NAM. Note that snow is not expected anywhere in Mississippi or Alabama at this time:

Severe weather is also expected to occur in coastal areas, south of the warm front. Here is the current Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the primary threats. Notice this includes areas such as New Orleans, Biloxi, Mobile, Gulf Shores, Atmore, Florala, Brewton, Dothan, Tallahassee, Pensacola, and into central Georgia.

With so much rain that has fallen over this area, it is no surprise to see a smattering of Flash Flood Watches and Areal Flood Advisories:

Have a safe weekend and God Bless!

Jake Reed