Severe Storms Possible Friday

Our airmass over Mississippi and most of the southeastern states has been quite soupy and tropical over the past few days. This coupled with an upper low situated over south Georgia has really aided in big time summer gully-washers each afternoon over most of the area. Thursday, strong storms dumped 3-5" of rain across the Jackson metro area and caused significant flooding. For Friday, more strong storms are possible, especially in the afternoon.

The latest Day 1 Outlook from the SPC has us circled in the slight risk of severe weather:

As with almost all summertime storms, the main threat will come from the potential damaging straight-lined winds coming in the form of downbursts as the storms collapse. These winds can be on the order of 50-90mph and can cause quite a bit of damage...

As a secondary threat, the potential for hail exists mainly over central, north MS and northwest AL:

*Tornadic activity is not likely*

Some key ingredients are in place just as they have been over the past week so the question is not whether storms will form- it's how strong will the storms be? Not only will we see added lift from the upper low over Georgia, but a weak cool front dropping south through Tennessee will also focus convergence and lift for storms to form. In fact, at the time of this writing, a decaying MCS was present over central TN and was dropping south. This complex will continue to weaken through the rest of the early morning hours, but it's outflow may trigger storms later in the day Friday:

The more sunshine we see in the first part of the day will certainly fuel stronger afternoon storms, however, if storms get going early like they did Thursday, some areas will not see convection in the afternoon. Mean-layer CAPE values are expected to be very high Friday afternoon (as is typical in a hot,humid summer airmass):

Just as great of a threat as damaging winds (and maybe more) is the potential for dangerous flash flooding. Storms Thursday were training N-S so the rain really added up quickly. PWAT values tomorrow afternoon will once again be very high- 2+" in many locations, supporting more heavy, torrential rain with the storms:

Below is simulated radar for tomorrow afternoon at 3 PM CDT. Note several clusters of strong storms:

As always, remain weather aware!

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