As of 4PM, TS Debby had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and was located about 30 miles off the coast of Apalachicola, Florida, and was moving NE at 5 mph. Debby has been a very slow moving system and as a result, has dumped copious amounts of rain on the Florida panhandle as well as the northern half of the peninsula. Here are rain totals just since Friday morning around 8AM...some areas south of Tallahassee are approaching 20 inches:
More rain is expected as Debby continues to track NE, closer to Florida. Current satellite and radar shows one batch of torrential rain just to the north of the center of circulation, drenching parts of the panhandle:
Not only is flooding a big concern, rain bands pinwheeling around Debby have been responsible for numerous reports of tornadoes. A tornado watch remains in effect for most of the peninsula through 11PM tonight, but I would not be surprised to see additional watches issued:
As far as Debby's track is concerned, the models are still coming into better agreement that Debby will come ashore on the coast of the Florida peninsula. Here is the 18Z guidance from a few of the models:
Additionally, the most recent forecast cone from the NHC has shifted well to the east, showing Debby coming ashore as either a weak tropical storm, or a strong depression- either way, the flooding potential and tornado potential are threats that need to be taken very seriously-:
Despite being in the Gulf for several days now, Debby has yet to really organize into a 'classic' tropical system. The main convection still remains on the eastern side of the storm, and never was able to wrap around to the western side. Significant strengthening is still not expected, and most of the models keep Debby as a tropical storm over the next 132 hours:
Several different 'steering' mechanisms are playing into Debby's evolution. Note over the central US, a very strong heat ridge is holding tough, acting to block Debby from moving in a more westerly direction. The trough digging down over the eastern US is acting as a lure or 'path of least resistance' for Debby to follow and be picked up by, as well as another area of High pressure located east of the Greater Antilles helping to steer Debby. Below is the 500-850hPa mean steering wind, valid at 21Z:
No comments:
Post a Comment