Tuesday: Rain or Snow?

Several people have been asking me why it seems like there has been a lot more talk of snow this winter across the deep south. The answer is that it is no coincidence- we can thank La Niña! The best way I can describe this without pulling out a textbook is that is a type of weather pattern which usually means very unsettled conditions for the US. The jet stream, a divider between warm and cold air and practically a highway for mid-lattitude cyclones, can be very erratic with wild oscillations north and south. What this means for us in the deep south, is that if the jet stream makes a huge nose-dive south, we get a surge of artic air- and if this happens to be in line with a low pressure center, we have the chance of seeing snow, sleet, freezing rain, or all of the above! 

However, the weather is rarely this simplistic. Sometimes, all the ingredients do not align at the right times and what we all thought was going to be a big snow event, turns out to be a cold rain. Seems like it never happens the other way around, unfortunately!

Before I begin discussing the big situation on Tuesday, let me touch on Monday. As we continue to progress through the night tonight, a small disturbance will be approaching us from the west. I'm not expecting any wintry weather with this system, but we do have a chance for some showers early in the day on Monday. The GFS is being a little more ambitious with rainfall amounts- here's what that model is predicting for things to look like 6AM Monday morning: 

Now on to Tuesday! The models are beginning to shy away from a snow event (at least for us here in MS) as temperatures near the surface will be too warm to support or sustain snow development and/or accumulation- so it looks as if it will be just a cold rain. I've put together a timeline from the NAM forecast model which shows the likelihood of the rain throughout the day on Tuesday: 

6AM TUESDAY

12PM TUESDAY

6PM TUESDAY

In summary, a slight chance for a shower or two early in the day on Monday, otherwise very cloudy. Tuesday looks to be a washout and will most likely be a RAIN event for us in MS, which is good news because we are behind on average rainfall for the month. If conditions should change, stay tuned to my twitter updates. You can follow me @JakeReed2

Hope your week gets off to a great start!

Jake R