As mentioned before, weather forecast models can change quite abruptly and drastically even in a short amount of time. Here's what is different from what I was originally thinking: A day or so ago, it was looking like temps in the lower part of the atmosphere would be too warm to sustain snow development and all the models were predicting just a cold rain as far north as the TN border.
However, the models were having a tough time deciphering what to make of the upper level disturbance that will sweep through Tues. night and into Wednesday morning. But it now seems like the models are finally getting their acts together on this system. Although we are not expecting a major snow event here in MS, as the upper level low digs south from Texarkana into the SE, it will help cool the atmosphere off at the low levels and this will mean the difference between snow flakes or rain. I've seen some predictions as high as 3 or 4" in extreme N MS- I'm talking the counties that border TN- and as much as 1" for places like Starkville along HWY 82. Even considering the upper level low, places along and south of I-20 will only see rain.
Again, this is a very dynamic situation and lots of components must come together at exactly the right time for the snow to occur.
So here's a play-by-play of what you can expect:
TONIGHT- increasing clouds and rain from the SW surging north and staying with us throughout the overnight hours
TUESDAY- expect mostly a cold rain during the first 2/3 of the day
TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. MORNING- expect a change-over from rain to snow (if all ingredients come together) and some light accumulations in the GTR.
Stay tuned to my twitter account @JakeReed2 and I'll have more frequent updates on watches/warnings should they be posted for our area, as well as other developments with this storm.
Jake R
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