Has Debby Decided Florida?

As of 10PM , Tropical Storm Debby was stationary just over 100 miles off the coast of Apalachicola, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 60mph. Note that a majority of the rain and squalls are still located east of the main center of circulation, pummeling Florida with flooding rains and even tornadoes:

The intense squalls rolling through Florida have been responsible for numerous reports of tornadoes, structural damage, injuries, and even 1 fatality so far. Here is an image from Jupiter, Florida, taken by Steve Weagler:

Currently a very intense rain band is passing through the panhandle, moving closer to Orlando with numerous severe t-storm warnings out. Here is current radar:

For several days now, Debby has presented the weather models with a very challenging situation. Up until today, there had been a decided split between major, reliable global models as well as the tropical models- Texas or Florida? With every recent run, it seems as though the models are becoming better in-line with Debby coming ashore along the Florida Gulf Coast somewhere near Apalachicola. 

First, we'll visit a few of the major models and you'll note very good agreement. Each image is the forecast valid for Monday morning at 7AM:

European

GFS

NAM

GFDL

Canadian

Even the GFS ensembles are coming into better agreement:

18Z Run:

The obvious shift in the models has prompted the National Hurricane Center to re-draw their forecast path to now show Debby coming ashore on the Florida Panhandle:

Notice NHC is not expecting Debby to achieve hurricane status, however, do not let that be misleading as this system is still causing life-threatening conditions, especially in the form of high surf and dangerous rip currents in areas where huge swells are not very common.

Aside from that, remember that a little over 2 weeks ago, parts of the Florida panhandle received more than 20 inches of rain and Debby is expected to dump up to a foot more in some areas. Below is the NAM's forecast of how much rain will fall over the next 84 hours (keep in mind some areas have already seen close to 10 inches:

In addition to the rain, TS force winds will be felt over a large area around Debby. Below is what the Hurricane Center is forecasting over the next 5 days:

Also note Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings, Coastal Flood Warnings, Flash Flood Watches, and even Tornado Watches are out for parts of Florida:

CONCLUSIONS: Uncertainty still remains on the exact track Debby will take and additional changes to the forecast path could certainly happen. Because Debby is stationary right now, in theory, she could literally start moving in any direction and until some semi-consistent motion becomes present, we cannot be totally sure of her exact destination, although the recent (better) agreement among the models does look promising.