TS Debby Forms in the Gulf

As of the official 5PM EDT NHC update, Tropical Storm Debby was named. The system had maximum sustained winds of 50mph. Debby was slowly drifting towards the north, but then is expected to make a curve towards the west.

The deep convection is only located on the eastern side of the center of circulation, which is located about 220 miles SSE of the mouth of the MS River. In fact, nasty squalls have been pummeling south Florida for the past few days, even a few tornado warnings have been issued this afternoon.

For several days now, the Canadian and Euro models, and recently the NAM, have been consistently showing Debby ultimately tracking towards Texas. 12z data from the Canadian has this system continuing a northward jog and brings into south Louisiana, but I do not agree with this solution and it is definitely and outlier. 

The GFS and GFDL have consistently showed Debby tracking east towards Florida and eventually up the east coast, assuming the current trough over the Northeast would act to lure Debby eastward. However, the building ridge of High pressure over the central US is becoming more influential, and the clockwise flow around the High will help steer Debby westward towards Texas. 

Notice, however, the amount of uncertainty among the models as to the evolution of Debby:

The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Debby per the 5PM EDT  update. The NHC has obviously sided more with the Euro, CMC, NAM, HRWF solution, tracking Debby toward Texas into next week. Here is the latest forecast path:

As we know, forecasts can and do change (sometimes drastically), so it is very important to stay up-to-date  of the latest information. That information can be found at www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Interesting side note, Debby is the earliest 4th storm in historical records, surpassing Dennis which formed on July 5, 2005.

At this time, most of the tropical models keep Debby as a Tropical Storm, however, some of the global models, such as the Canadian and Euro, suggest Debby may strengthen into a hurricane once we get into next week:

Right now, it appears that the only adverse affects that will be felt along the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama Gulf coasts will be higher surf, dangerous rip currents, and occasional t-storms each afternoon.