Tropical Development Lurking in the Gulf

Despite having the first hurricane of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season churning in the north Atlantic, a majority of the attention is now turning towards the Gulf for possible development early next week. For several days now, a trough has been responsible for a deluge of showers and thunderstorms over parts of Cuba, south Florida, the Bahamas, and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. It looks as though upper-level winds will relax somewhat allowing for better organization of this system into more a tropical system. Here is the latest information from the Hurricane Center:

Many of the trusted numerical weather models are picking up on this system as well. The Canadian and European seem to be the most aggressive, however, they also have the most spread or difference in track. The Canadian develops a tropical cyclone and tracks it west across the Gulf into south Texas by the middle of next week. The map below is the forecast valid for Tuesday at 7pm:

The European develops this system but tracks it more northeast, towards Florida, and eventually up the east coast. The following is the European's forecast valid for Tuesday at 7pm:

The latest run of the GFS shows a much weaker system developing, but the track is still very similar to the European's. Here is last night's run of the GFS valid for Monday morning at 7am:

A few other factors will play a key role in the track of this system, most notably the strong heat ridge over the central US. We will certainly have to monitor the Gulf closely as tropical development is becoming more and more likely.