Model Madness: Turmoil in the Tropics

There is almost no doubt that our next tropical system to form will be in the Gulf of Mexico. If so, the storm would take on the name Debby. The real question is where will this storm go once it becomes organized? The latest satellite imagery shows a broad, disorganized area of thunderstorms near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula:

Hurricane hunters will be investigating this area of low pressure in the coming days, but for now, we'll refer to this as Invest 96L. Current max winds are only at 30mph. 

The real question on everyones mind is where will this system go? Keep in mind there will continue to be a lot of uncertainty over the next day or so, and we will not become more certain of track or intensity until "Debby" becomes better organized.

Much of the uncertainty comes from the fact that there is a decided split in how the forecast models are handling this system. For example, the European and Canadian develop this system and track towards the Texas coast. In fact, the Canadian seems to be the most aggressive, developing this storm into a strong hurricane and bringing into the central Texas coast- the European tracks it more towards south Texas.

Below are some images that show exactly what the Canadian and European are calling for:

Above is the operational European's 120-hour forecast. Note the area of low pressure off the south Texas Coast. Below is the European ensemble, indicating decent agreement with the operational, tracking the system towards the S Texas coast.

Below, is the Canadian model's much more aggressive 120-hr solution of a strong hurricane tracking toward the central Texas Gulf coast...

Note the Canadian ensemble is not in great agreement with the operational, some members (red numbers) show the system's location off the Texas coast, but a few track the system more towards Florida:

Check out each member of the Candian ensemble's solution:

Interestingly, the GFS along with a majority of its ensembles develop this system and track closer to Florida, and eventually up the East Coast. The GFS solution shows the weakest intensity.

The 'tropical' models seem to be in agreement with the GFS' solution of a more northeastward track:

Right now, it looks as though meaningful development of this system will be slow as wind shear is still a bit of a limiting factor over the southern Gulf, but it looks by at least Sunday or Monday, we should have a better organized system on our hands and will have a much better idea of where "Debby" will go.