Major Shift in Debby Track

Per the NHC 4AM EDT update, Tropical Storm Debby had inched a little closer towards the US Coast; the center of circulation is about 165 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Debby still contains maximum sustained winds of 50mph and was moving north at 3mph.

NEW OVERNIGHT: Some of the reliable tropical models and global models have made some dramatic shifts in their tracks for Debby. For example, the Canadian and European model which have consistently tracked Debby to Texas by the middle of next week have now drastically shifted Debby's track. The Euro, which had been showing a Debby landfall on the central Texas coast is now bringing Debby ashore on the Louisiana coastline early next week:

Above is the Euro solution valid for Wednesday evening at 7pm.

Even more dramatic is the change that the Canadian is showing. The Canadian is now showing Debby tracking into the central Florida panhandle into early next week:

The image above is the Canadian's forecast valid for Monday at 7pm.

The NAM had also been showing a Texas landfall for Debby but is now suggesting Debby may actually be quite stationary over the open Gulf for the next several days. Below is the NAM forecast valid for Wednesday at 1pm:

What has remained unchanged is the fact that most tropical models keep Debby BELOW Hurricane status, regardless of where she comes ashore:

Notice again overall, there has been a pretty dramatic shift towards the right as far as the models are concerned:

Coastal flooding will be a major problem, especially if Debby keeps moving at such a slow pace. Below is the HPC's expected rainfall totals over the next 5 days:

What to take away from this post: The track of Debby, while still somewhat of a toss-up, seems to be evolving into more of a central Gulf Coast storm. Until the storm actually makes a turn toward the west or east, we won't know exactly where she'll go, but if Debby continues north, she will come ashore on the Louisiana coastline. The central Gulf Coast states need to prepare and no one can rule this storm out just yet- not even Texas.

The latest forecast from path from the NHC:

I would not be surprised to see this change dramatically once the 8AM EDT  update comes out...

Stay tuned for more updates here as well as new advisories from the National Hurricane Center.